In February 2022, two days after Russia invaded and launched a cyberattack to take down the satellite system used by the Ukrainian military, Ukraine’s Digital Minister Mykhailo Fedorov sent a tweet to Elon Musk. In the tweet, Fedorov urged Musk to do his part in aiding their war effort, asking him “to provide Ukraine with Starlink stations.” Less than 48 hours later, Musk had adjusted his Starlink satellites and sent internet-ready Starlink terminals to Ukraine.
Starlink, the satellite internet technology made by Musk’s rocket company SpaceX, has seen its influence grow over the past few years. Since 2019, Musk has been delivering dozens of satellites into orbit almost every week that can transmit high-speed internet by communicating with terminals on Earth. Today, Starlink satellites make up more than 50% of all active satellites, with around 6,426 Starlink satellites in orbit as of September 2024 – facts which have together pushed the value of SpaceX to nearly $210 billion.
But recent events have made it abundantly clear that Musk’s technology is not just a valuable technological innovation, but also a significant political tool. Starlink is often the only way to get internet access in war zones, remote areas, and places affected by natural disasters, and it has become integral to Ukraine’s war effort. Fedorov called Starlink the “blood of our entire communication infrastructure,” and indeed it has enormously aided Ukrainian success. However, the sheer magnitude of Musk’s influence over the conflict has raised some serious concerns.
Already leading SpaceX, Tesla, and X, Musk has become the dominant power in satellite internet technology. Starlink has made him a key player in global affairs, a fact he acknowledged in April 2023 when he boasted that “between, Tesla, Starlink & Twitter, I may have more real-time global economic data in one head than anyone ever.” With so much data “in one head,” Musk has become a power broker that US officials cannot ignore, especially considering his vacillating, ambiguous politics and wide-ranging business interests. With little oversight or regulation, political leaders around the world have become increasingly concerned over his next moves, as well as his motives.
A large part of the problem is that Musk’s views on Ukraine are alarmingly contradictory. At the same time that he has provided Ukraine with Starlink terminals, Musk has also echoed many pro-Russian viewpoints, including the belief that Russia should be allowed to keep the annexed territory of Crimea, and has reportedly spoken directly to Russian President Vladimir Putin over the phone.
Unelected, unvetted, and with no clear loyalties, Musk has proved willing to flex his near-total control of the Starlink system. He alone can decide to shut down Starlink internet access for a customer or country, and already, he has restricted Starlink access for Ukraine multiple times during the war. Last year, he denied the Ukrainian military’s request to turn on Starlink near Crimea, the Russian-controlled territory, which disrupted a Ukrainian sneak attack on the Russian naval fleet.
Musk defended this decision by asserting that such an attack would lead “to a major escalation” in the war, explaining that “we did not want to be a part of that.” Yet in so condemning and interfering with Ukrainian strategy, Musk gave the Russian naval fleet the freedom “to fire Kalibr missiles at Ukrainian cities,” as Mykhailo Podolyak, top advisor to Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, explains, which led to significant Ukrainian civilian losses. Podolyak insists that “this is the price of a cocktail of ignorance and big ego” that is Elon Musk.
More recently, reports from Ukrainian defense and intelligence officials have suggested that Russian forces are now using the technology in Ukraine. These reports, as well as an investigation by The Wall Street Journal, indicate that Russia has acquired Starlink terminals through third-party intermediaries and neutral countries. These black market networks have funneled thousands of the devices not only into Russia, but also into the hands of certain American adversaries and accused war criminals, granting SpaceX – and Musk – an acting role in the turbulent geopolitics of warfare. The proliferation of the technology inside Russia has significantly improved the operational coordination and efficiency of Russian troops, and has contributed to Ukrainian connection problems.
Democrats on the US Congressional Oversight Committee wrote to SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell due to these reports, explaining that they were “concerned” that the company “may not have appropriate guardrails and policies in place to ensure … technology is neither acquired directly or indirectly, nor used illegally by Russia.”
Musk has denied any involvement, stating on X that “to the best of our knowledge, no Starlinks have been sold directly or indirectly to Russia.” He has also assured that the company is working with the US Department of Defense to find and disable Starlink satellite terminals that have fallen into Russia hands.
So far, however, the problem has not improved, in fact, Ukrainian intelligence spokesman Andriy Yusov has stated that Russian use of the technology “is starting to take on a systemic nature.”
In a letter to Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin in May, Senator Elizabeth Warren voiced her concerns about unsanctioned Starlink terminal proliferation, stating that the status of efforts to remedy the problem “is unclear at best,” despite Musk reportedly being aware of “hostile actors circumventing US sanctions to acquire its terminals since at least February of this year.” Warren explained that even more worrying was the report that Ukrainian officials made Starlink aware of their concerns over Russia using the service, but allegedly “feared pressing the issue with SpaceX because of the ‘unpredictable’ nature of tech billionaire Elon Musk.”
The past few years have shown that Musk has the power to change the outcome of conflict operations – and that he is willing to use it – single-handedly affecting the tide of foreign policy. Cybersecurity expert Dmitri Alperovitch explained why this development is so concerning, pointing out that “this is not just one company, but one person … You are completely beholden to his whims and desires.”
With the three-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion looming, Ukraine and US officials are in uncharted territory. Musk has become a separate actor in the war – another factor to balance – and relying on the goodwill of an unpredictable billionaire has become a crucial part of the war effort. Now, in light of Musk’s burgeoning relationship with president-elect Donald Trump, who has cast doubt as to continued US commitment to Ukraine once he begins his presidency, this goodwill may very well dry up.
Even as Starlink’s satellite numbers continue to rise, Musk’s political, social, and economic influence only grows, seeming, at least for the near future, a fixture of modern global affairs.
Image source: Flickr