When Joseph Biden served as Vice-President, he traveled to over 45 countries, often leading diplomatic efforts on behalf of the Obama administration. In Central America, he was often tasked with the challenge of working with Guatemalan, Salvadoran and Honduran governments to stem irregular migration. The resulting regional initiative became known as the “Plan of the Alliance for Prosperity in the Northern Triangle” and was drafted in response to the over 70,000 unaccompanied minors that were apprehended at the southern border in 2014. This five-year joint regional plan was financed by the U.S. Congress’ commitment to allocate over $700 million towards development and security assistance to this specific Central American region. One of the presidents that committed to this initiative, sadly, went on to extend his rule and whose undemocratic conduct became a predicament for U.S. foreign policy in Central America.
There are many challenges Honduras poses for the U.S. and many are related to the outgoing administration of Juan Orlando Hernández. Initially, Hernández’s ascent to power was well received by Washington. His iron-fist approach towards gang networks and regional drug trafficking delighted many of his North American counterparts given that these were two factors accused in spurring unprecedented migration from the region. In 2013, shortly before coming into office, San Pedro Sula was recognized as the most dangerous city in the world not actively at war with a homicide rate of 85.5 per 100,000 inhabitants. In 2019, that rate had significantly dropped by half.
If President Hernández successfully reduced the country’s homicide rate, why has his government proven to be a predicament for the current and past two presidencies of the United States? The reasons have to do with an escalation of institutional corruption, narco-trafficking accusations and most notably, the continuous surge in irregular immigration from Honduras to North America. Two years before he was inaugurated, 513 family units were apprehended at the U.S. southern border. In 2019, the documented number rose to an alarming 188,368 apprehensions. A brief insight into how this has complicated the relation between these two countries could better convey the challenges that lie ahead for the newly-elected, first-female democratically elected president, Xiomara Castro Sarmiento.
Historically, Honduras has maintained great diplomatic relations with the United States. At the turn of the 20th century, businessmen from the United States invested heavily into the country’s mining sector, banana production, and transportation infrastructure. President John F. Kennedy nominated Honduras to become a recipient of funding from the Alliance for Progress initiative, a 10-year, multi-billion dollar aid program designed to improve U.S. relations with Latin America. During the 1980’s, Honduran President Roberto Suazo Cordova allowed President Ronald Reagan to utilize Honduras as a base for U.S. sponsored counterinsurgency operations. In 2019, Honduras’ gross domestic product was just over $24 billion with U.S. goods and services trades totaling an estimate of over $12 billion. Tensions momentarily flared in June 2009 when the Honduran military overthrew the democratically-elected administration of President Manuel Zelaya Rosales. Though President Obama initially condemned this to be “illegal,” then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton did not call for a restoration of the overthrown government but rather validated – through her display of apathy – the farce elections that would eventually cement the National Party for twelve years.
The relationship between these two governments over this period of time has established some very concerning precedents. In 2015, a wave of protests denouncing government corruption swept through Guatemala and Honduras, eventually leading to the resignation of a Guatemalan president and vice-president. While not directly implicated in a scandal regarding the siphoning of hundreds of millions of dollars from the country’s social security institute, Hernández would go on to admit, during an interview with Reuters, that his electoral campaign received money that originated from this scandal without initially recognizing this. The pressure from civil society did not achieve their desired change in government, only the establishment of an international anti-corruption commission, the Mission to Support the Fight Against Crime and Impunity in Honduras (MACCIH), with the help of the U.S. and the United Nations.
Juan Orlando Hernández was first elected into office in 2013 for a single four-year presidential term. Though he went on to strengthen his country’s armed forces by creating two new security forces, he weakened democracy as these efforts would prove to be smokescreens that would ultimately fail to conceal his true authoritarian lust for power. President Hernández presided as President of the Honduan National Congress that unjustly sacked four-fifths of the Supreme Court in two years before becoming president. In 2015, the new appointees approved a modification to the amendment in the Honduran Constitution that explicitly outlawed re-election and thus enabled President Hernández the ability to run once more. The 2017 presidential election was marked by a series of irregularities and violence. Social unrest was prompted by the electoral commission’s voting system shutting down for ten hours after displaying Hernández trailing his opponent by more than five percent. It took three weeks for the electoral results to become finalized and it took the Trump administration only five more days to recognize this controversial electoral victory as legitimate. The White House’s actions signified that immigration deterrence, rather than democratic values, constitutes the true concern of this diplomatic relation.
Perhaps the most condemnable event related directly to the Honduran head of state was the arrest and criminal trial of his younger brother in the United States. In March 2021, Honduran Congressman Juan Antonio “Tony” Hernández was sentenced to life in prison. The Southern District of New York’s Attorney General’s office stated that “over a 15-year period, Hernández manufactured and distributed at least 185,000 kilograms of cocaine that was imported into the United States.” The media release statement went on to detail how the president’s younger brother utilized members of the Honduran military and national police while President Hernández received electoral campaign funds from Amilcar Ardon Soriano, the second former Honduran Mayor charged with conspiring to import cocaine into the United States. President Hernández has adamantly defended his administration, highlighting his cooperation with U.S. Southern Command counter-narcotic related operations and his authorization of extraditing Honduran officials to the U.S. In the case of his younger brother, he was not extradited but rather detained by the Drug Enforcement Agency at Miami’s international airport.
President Biden is no stranger to Honduras. As one of the leading authors of Alliance for Prosperity, he had to work with Central American leaders and design economic aid programs that would discourage migration to the U.S. It clearly had many shortcomings, considering the slew of international media headlines that continue to document the grim realities of Honduran unaccompanied children and families migrating in the present day. One thing for certain is that back-to-back hurricanes Eta and Iota in November 2020 were not foreseen and in conjunction with the ongoing pandemic, forced more Hondurans to consider leaving their country. In January 2021, the Anti-National Corruption Council published a report on how corruption is a determining factor in Honduran migration, demonstrating how corruption represses access to public services and how the lack of financial transparency promotes the degradation of security, education, health and municipal services. Even during this difficult time for the nation, certain government officials misappropriated millions of dollars in public funds, promising mobile hospitals that did nothing to alleviate the country’s national health crisis. It is possible that this persistent corruption is the reason why President Biden has not yet met with his Honduran counterpart.
Xiomara Castro’s inauguration will take place towards the end of January and U.S. foreign officials have begun engaging with her transition team. The most recent development is the confirmation of U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris’ attendance at incoming President Castro’s inauguration. Juan Orlando Hernández and Xiomara Castro come from two completely different political parties and maintain a very different vision for the future of Honduras. President Hernández rejoiced in the diplomatic approval he received from the United States even as he devalued democracy and the anti-corruption struggle in Honduras. Because of this, Castro not only became the first female Honduran president, but also received the most votes in her country’s history because constituents recognize her willingness to dismantle the bureaucracy that facilitates such impunity. The restoration of trust between these two governments will be critical as their bilateral relationship enters a new era.