The most revealing moment of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s address to the UN occurred when he revealed two side-by-side maps of the Middle East. One, labeled “The Curse” represented an Iran-dominated Middle East. The other map, labeled “The Blessing,” presented a connected region with trade routes between the Mediterranean and the Gulf enabled by Saudi normalization. Notably, both maps fully incorporate the West Bank and Gaza into Israel proper – a revealing glimpse into a Trump-endorsed plan that could come to fruition in his potential second administration.
The hope of Saudi normalization as seen in “The Blessing” map almost never came to be. The Netanyahu government in 2020 had plans to annex the West Bank, but internal hesitation stalled the process, and negotiations led by the UAE formalized the Abraham Accords. The deal officially normalized relations between Israel, the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco and was interpreted as removing annexation in the near future. A skeptical Netanyahu accepted the deal, and abandoned annexation with the understanding he could not begin the process without steadfast support from his governing coalition and Washington.
The next four years provided little support for the annexation plan, as the Biden administration stood in firm opposition. The Biden administration continued to pursue a Saudi normalization deal in hopes of integrating Israel further into the Arab world yet largely ignoring the Palestinian issue. Biden long expressed support for a two-state solution, though his term was marred by the expansion of Israeli settlements and an intensifying West Bank status quo.
Since Hamas’ attack on October 7, the prospects for a two-state outcome are historically low. Israeli settler violence against Palestinian villages has escalated with the IDF often ignoring outbursts. Illegal Israeli outposts have increased deep in the West Bank and Israel has doubled the amount of West Bank land it has claimed since the Oslo Accords of 1993. Palestinian terror groups have grown in prominence in West Bank cities and plotted attacks within Israel, resulting in frequent Israeli raids in Area A. Israel’s withholding of tax funds has ravaged the fragile economy, putting thousands of West Bank day laborers out of work. The Palestinian Authority (PA), led by Mahmoud Abbas, is viewed as weak, corrupt, and incapable of governing an eventual state in its current form. In the meantime, the most far-right government in Israeli history has considered de jure annexation once again while expanding settlement construction deeper into the West Bank. Hopes of removing the current coalition in favor of a more pragmatic one have diminished further with Netanyahu’s coalition still growing, likely extending his reign until October 2026.
While a Trump Middle East policy is unclear, annexation is a realistic possibility. Influential Trump donors and advisors have openly advocated for annexation. Trump is unlikely to continue Biden’s practice of sanctioning Israeli settler groups, evidenced by the administration’s 2019 reversal of longstanding U.S. policy declaring settlements illegal under international law. In May, Trump said, “I’m not sure a two state solution is going to work,” to the delight of Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich who responded, “A Palestinian state would be a terrorist state that would endanger the existence of Israel.” Ultimately, a second Trump administration would do little to restrain the extremes of the Israeli government and would instead work to cement Israeli control over the entirety of the West Bank.
The implications of annexation are far reaching and damaging. Legal annexation solidifies the segregated systems for Palestinians and Israeli settlers, increasing the likelihood of violence. Palestinians are further removed from self governance, leading to deeper resentment threatening Israel’s own security. Smotrich’s plan includes settlement expansion further into the West Bank, as opposed to the majority of current settlements which reside adjacent to the Green Line which separates Israel proper from the West Bank. Hamas has been unsuccessful in mobilizing West Bank militants to resist en masse, but if economic hardships persist and settlements expand Israel, there is a risk of a Third Intifada that experts have warned about in recent years. Expanded settler violence and annexation pose existential threats to Israelis and Palestinians, and an ambivalent attitude from Washington enables the most radical of the Israeli right wing. The current Israeli government lacks the same internal divisions over annexation as the prior coalition, and a green light from Trump accelerates the process.
Not only would annexation threaten a Saudi deal, but it strains Israeli alliances with the Egyptians and Jordanians. Israel does not have the luxury of testing alliances in its fragile regional standing, and Jordan is almost certain to retaliate against annexation whether through recalling ambassadors or scrapping the peace treaty. While Egypt is less likely to take drastic measures, it is a major player in Gaza’s reconstruction, and Israel needs its cooperation. While Israel is isolated and condemned by countries in the Middle East and across the world, it cannot risk weakening its already fragile peace with its neighbors.
Surely, a peace plan with two secure states will not be crafted amid heightened tensions and a potential regional war. But a policy of annexation ensures that Israel will be embroiled in regional conflict for the foreseeable future, and Palestinians in the West Bank will continue to be deprived of political autonomy. These steps delegitimize the PA and demonstrate a lack of control, yet a competent PA is in Israel’s best interest. Israel should be taking steps to strengthen the PA as a viable governing body, instead of the corrupt and ineffective body it currently is. On both sides, the prospect of peace feels impossible at this moment, but a two-state solution is the only solution to ensure long-term safety and justice for Israel and Palestine. Small steps seem futile in a period of maximalist agendas and constant escalation, but annexation threatens to exacerbate the conflict irreversibly.
The West Bank is at a breaking point; annexation not only worsens the already intolerable situation for Palestinians in the West Bank but also threatens Israeli security in the long term. In a time of great uncertainty in the region, a second Trump administration threatens to remove the guardrails from Israel’s worst instincts and poses to plunge the region into further chaos. If there is any hope of “The Blessing,” the U.S. must reject maximalist actions and create conditions for the inevitable Palestinian state and Israeli regional integration.
Image source: Wikimedia Commons
