On August 5th, 2024, the Prime Minister of Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina, fled to India, ending her decades-long career as one of the country’s top political leaders. Hasina’s resignation was the culmination of nationwide protests that began in July, primarily led by students opposed to the country’s quota system for government jobs. Bangladesh’s quota system sets aside 30 percent of all government jobs for the children and grandchildren of those who fought for the country’s independence in 1971. Many young people – already disillusioned with Hasina’s government and her party, the Awami League (AL) – were angered by the reduction of government jobs available to them through a meritocratic process, particularly because of the relative lack of stable, well-paying jobs in the country.
However, the end of Hasina’s increasingly autocratic rule seemed to be a long time coming. Beginning with Hasina’s reelection earlier this year, there have been increasing concerns over the decline of the country’s democracy as well as allegations of election fraud. In fact, the election was boycotted by Bangladesh’s main opposition party, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), and had one of the lowest voter turnout rates in the country’s history. The United States and the United Kingdom called the election unfree and unfair, while countries like India and Russia asserted, in support of Hasina, that the election was fair.
There is also a growing perception that Hasina’s government is corrupt. Many powerful figures in Hasina’s government, including former high-level military and law enforcement leaders, have been mired in rumors of corruption. Hasina herself admitted she had to fire her own assistant for embezzling millions of dollars in state funds. The quota system for the government, the main cause of the student protests, was also viewed as part of Hasina’s tightening control over the Bangladeshi government. Young people also saw it as a way for Hasina to install party loyalists because one of the core support groups of Hasina’s party are the descendents of those who fought for Bangladesh’s independence.
The Bangladeshi Parliament was dissolved soon after Hasina’s resignation, forming a power vacuum in the region with the country’s largest neighbors, India and China, vying for political influence. Bangladesh now stands at a turning point with two options to define its future trajectory: military rule or a new democratic government.
Currently, Muhammad Yunus, a Bangladeshi Nobel Laureate, has served as the leader of the country’s interim government since Hasina’s resignation. Yunus, a popular economist among the student population, was appointed as part of a compromise by the military and the student leaders of the protest who were suspicious of military rule. Interestingly, Yunus was convicted of labor law violations by Hasina’s government earlier this year, a move that was criticized as being politically motivated. Yunus has now appointed a cabinet with new leaders and has begun embarking on a series of reforms to restore peace and democracy to Bangladesh.
However, neither Yunus nor Bangladeshi military leaders have committed to a solid timeline for holding democratic elections, leading to concerns that Bangladesh may indefinitely remain under Yunus’ unelected government or military rule. For instance, General Waker-uz-Zaman, the chief of Bangladesh’s army, has said that he would like to see an election within a year and a half of Hasina’s resignation – but he has also committed to not intervening in politics. On the other hand, in a recent interview during the UN General Assembly, Yunus disagreed with the military’s plan for elections in a year and a half and instead gave a mixed response, stating that he did not think there should be elections without “fixing everything,” referencing the implementation of his plans for political and civil reforms. Some opposition parties, like the BNP, want elections to be held as soon as November 2024.
A military coup of this nature is not unprecedented in Bangladesh’s history. Bangladesh has actually experienced relatively many military coups and assassinations, beginning with the assassination of the country’s first prime minister – who was also Hasina’s father – by the military. His assassination led to an autocratic government takeover by a Bangladeshi general for six years. Following the removal of the military ruler by rebels, the next Bangladeshi government was ousted by yet another military coup about a year after it came back into power.
Most recently, the January 2007 elections were postponed by the then-head of the caretaker government, Iajuddin Ahmed, after he declared a state of emergency. The military deployed troops across the country, and over 100,000 people were arrested, including many political elites and party leaders. Furthermore, Sheikh Hasina, who at the time was a former Prime Minister, was prevented from returning to the country, as she had been in the United States during the coup. Similarly, another former Prime Minister, Khaleda Zia, was sent into exile by the orders of the military government. This governmental crisis eventually came to an end in the 2008 election with Hasina and Zia both running in the election on a platform to usher in a new era of democracy in Bangladesh, which was won by Sheikh Hasina and her party.
Assuming that Yunus and the military follow through on their commitment to hold a free and fair election, Bangladesh and its citizens face a similar situation to what they faced prior to the 2008 election. The results of a democratic election could drastically change the course of the country and its institutions. The next election will likely be contested by the country’s main opposition party, the BNP, and many of its allies. Soon after Hasina’s resignation, the BNP’s leader, former Prime Minister Zia, was released from jail, where she had been since her 2018 corruption conviction. Another party that will most likely contend in the next election will be the Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) party, a right-wing party and a close ally of the BNP. The JI had been banned by Hasina during the student protests and deemed a terrorist group, but this ban has now been removed by Yunus’ caretaker government.
It is still unknown if Hasina’s party, the AL, will compete in the next election. The party has been in disarray after Hasina’s departure to India, and many high-ranking leaders have been jailed or fled the country themselves. The party’s offices across the country now lay vacant or have been destroyed in the protests. The other major issue for the AL in an election is the deep mistrust in the party from both its supporters and the protestors. To many, Hasina and her party represent the systematic weakening of the country’s democracy as well as rampant human rights violations. Supporters of the AL feel betrayed by Hasina and other party leaders’ decisions to flee the country while they have been left to face attacks from the protesters. But, the AL does have the support of the country’s religious minorities, which neither the BNP or JI have. Hindus, the country’s largest religious minority group, make up 8 percent of the country’s population. Religious minorities have long supported the AL because of its secular nature compared to the BNP, JI, and other right-wing parties. Hindus particularly have faced severe attacks and violence due to the protests, with at least 200 attacks reported so far.
Hasina’s resignation has also left India and China competing for power over their much smaller neighbor and for influence over emerging political leaders. Bangladesh’s relationships with both countries stem from long historical and economic connections. India has a long and close history with Bangladesh since India supported Bangladesh’s fight for independence from Pakistan in the early 1970s. Furthermore, India is one of Bangladesh’s largest trade partners in Asia. The Indian government has also developed and maintained close relations with Hasina’s party at the expense of interaction with opposition parties like the BNP. A major issue between the Indian government and the interim government in Bangladesh is the topic of Hasina’s extradition to Bangladesh. The Indian government plans to let Hasina stay in the country and let her eventually move to a different country permanently. However, Yunus and the interim government want Hasina extradited to Bangladesh so she can be tried for alleged war crimes from her tenure as prime minister.
Similar to India, China maintained friendly relations with Hasina’s government. But, China has been much quicker in distancing itself from Hasina. For its part, China has begun reaching out to the opposition parties and the interim government. For instance, the Chinese Ambassador to Bangladesh, Yao Wen, made a visit to the JI party headquarters, becoming the first diplomat from any country to reach out to the JI party in over a decade. Chinese diplomats also attended the swearing-in ceremony for Yunus and his interim government.
The Indian government’s lack of foresight regarding engagement with opposition parties in Bangladesh seems to be an example of India’s decreasing regional influence and China’s growing diplomatic power. Many new governments in countries near India have distanced themselves from the Indian government. Mohammed Muizzo, the President of the Maldives, for example, was elected last year on an anti-India platform, which he called “India Out.” Under the “India Out” platform, Muizzo has called for India to remove their military presence from the country and also broke precedent by making his first foreign visit to Turkey instead of India. China has quickly taken advantage of the changing regional power dynamic and is using its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to forge closer diplomatic ties with neighboring countries. In fact, the Maldives joined the BRI in 2014, and China has since invested heavily in the country through substantial infrastructure development. Like the Maldives, Bangladesh has received billions of dollars from the BRI and also billions of dollars in loans to fund the development of industries in Bangladesh.
With Bangladesh’s democracy once again decaying into an autocracy, it remains unknown if the current leaders will implement a new democratic government and if the democracy will stand. Nonetheless, the case of Bangladesh is a further example of India’s decreasing influence in the wake of China’s growing regional and global power.
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