by Kemal Mohamedou
The Wagner mutiny of June 2023 was a moment that shocked not only Russia but the entire world. Led by the Wagner Group, a Russian private military contractor, the unanticipated march on Moscow served as a stark reminder of the precarious balance of power in the Russian leadership. However, in the complex terrain of geopolitics, things are seldom as they might appear. As we seek to make sense of the aftermath of these events, the question remains: was the Wagner mutiny an actual challenge to President Vladimir Putin’s authority?
The revolt was announced through a series of audio recordings posted on the online platform Telegram on June 23, 2023, when Yegevny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner Group, stated that the “evil” of Russia’s military leadership “must be stopped.” This denouncement of the Russian military high command, coupled with the announcement of an audacious “march for justice,” was a striking blow to the established power structure in Russia. Indeed, as the Wagner group embarked on its daring advance towards Moscow, seizing control of Rostov-on-Don and the headquarters of the Russian Southern Military District, a wave of shock and unease was felt not only throughout Russia’s oligarchy but also across international borders. Yet, the march was brought to an abrupt end due to negotiations brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, a known ally of Putin.
The immediate aftermath and resolution of these events led most analysts to conclude that Putin, embattled on his home front and entrenched in a protracted conflict in Ukraine, had incurred a major loss; some scholars forecasted that this was the beginning of the end of Putin’s regime. Whilst many are eager to declare Putin’s rule in peril, there is reason to consider that Putin may have actually emerged stronger from this apparent crisis. In fact, the Wagner mutiny could have, paradoxically, bolstered his power at a time when Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine had stagnated and talk of ‘quagmire’ had emerged.
First and foremost, while Prigozhin’s rebellion posed an unexpected challenge, it never directly threatened Putin. Despite the shock of an internal rebellion, operationally, Putin seemingly remained in control, and, at the height of the revolt, was never threatened or criticized directly by Prigozhin. Within a day, the situation was then neutralized. Real coups are different. Their resolution is often messier and more ambiguous, and their immediate aftermath is more problematic to handle for surviving rulers. In this case, Putin demonstrated control and resolution, suggesting a strong grip – for now – over his own administration.
Secondly, by centering his rhetorical fire on the Russian military leadership, Prigozhin inadvertently allowed Putin to identify and address issues within his defense forces. It is no secret that bureaucratic inefficiency and internal politics have long plagued Moscow’s institutional setup. The Wagner uprising has now offered Putin an opportunity to oust Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, Chief of General Staff Valery Geramisov, and “General Armageddon” Sergei Surovikin – the latter who has since gone missing – and regain full control. Regardless of whether a deal was struck with Prigozhin that they would be sidelined, the uprising opened welcome strategic space for Putin, who has already moved to restructure his defense forces. It bears reminding that, in admittedly a different context yet similar situation, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan survived the 2016 coup only to then consolidate power, crack down on his opponents and win re-election. Similarly, Putin’s brush with rebellion could now arguably make him more prepared and vigilant than ever in the face of internal defiance. Specifically, the June 2023 Wagner uprising allows Putin to reset his administration, with new leadership in his ministry of defense and an opportunity to clarify relationship with Prigozhin. Putin also has the opportunity to reaffirm strategic alliances – for example, with Belarus, which brokered a peace deal with Prigozhin.
Thirdly, the Wagner Uprising has the potential to revitalize Russia’s position and strategy in Ukraine. Despite its rebellion, the Wagner Group remains a potent force in the realm of military contractors. With its sophisticated capabilities and battle-hardened mercenaries, the group could provide a significant boost to Russian military efforts. For years, the relationship between the Wagner Group and the formal Russian military has been shrouded in uncertainty. The group has always operated in a gray area, with its status and connection to the Russian state remaining unclear. However, the recent events present a unique opportunity for Putin to redefine this relationship. By taking steps to integrate the Wagner Group more clearly into his military campaign, Putin can eliminate these ambiguities and harness the group’s capabilities more effectively. Moreover, a more closely aligned Wagner Group could lead to improved operational synergy with the Russian armed forces. By enhancing coordination and joint planning between the Wagner Group and the state military, this integration would also serve to send a clear message both domestically and internationally. Domestically, it could be portrayed as a move towards increased unity and strength in the face of adversity. Internationally, it would signal that Russia is prepared to leverage all available resources to pursue its objectives in Ukraine. Therefore, while the uprising may have been a temporary setback, it could inadvertently catalyze renewed momentum in Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine and reinforce Putin’s control over his military machine.
Moving forward, the Wagner uprising and its fallout provide Putin with several immediate benefits. Firstly, it reinforces his image as a strong leader who can withstand internal threats swiftly and effectively. Such a narrative could resonate with the Russian populace, providing a possible boost in domestic support. Secondly, it presents Putin with an excuse to conduct a further ‘cleansing’ of his administration. Existing undercurrents of dissent and inefficiency within Putin’s ranks, which have been systematically removed under the pretense of safeguarding national security, will now likely be more ruthlessly and overtly addressed. The Wagner mutiny, in this context, serves as a convenient accelerant for a new purge, enabling Putin to strengthen his control over the Russian government with even greater intensity and swiftness than before. Furthermore, the resolution of the Wagner uprising might provide an opportunity for Putin to redefine the role of private military companies in Russian foreign policy. The clarity over the status of the Wagner Group could improve the cohesiveness of Russia’s military operations in Ukraine.
To be certain, none of this solves the long-term challenges Russia faces, especially the ongoing challenges the Ukraine conflict represents for him at many levels. However, in the short term, the Wagner revolt may have unwittingly handed Putin a chance to consolidate his power, tighten his administration and refocus his strategies. Indeed, the Wagner revolt may have unintentionally provided Putin with an immediate opportunity to fortify his power, streamline his administration, and realign his strategies. Despite this, it is crucial to recognize that such short-term resolution does not eliminate the more profound, long-term challenges, complexities and pressures associated with the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. It is also undeniable that the mutiny of a trusted ally such as the Wagner Group has revealed cracks in Putin’s hold over his military apparatus. While Putin might have the upper hand over Prigozhin for now, the seeds of dissent have been sown, and future rebellions may not be shut down as Putin’s gamble in Ukraine continues to be a thorn in his side. A rejuvenated strategy following the uprising may provide short-term advantages, but it does not alter the reality that an outright victory seems unattainable. The West’s response to Putin’s handling of the mutiny, and any subsequent crackdowns or policy changes can also significantly impact Russia’s international standing and Putin’s strength at home.
Ultimately, while it is tempting to see Putin as weakened in the aftermath of the Wagner uprising, the reality is more complex. Putin may have turned a crisis into an opportunity, and he could use the mutiny to consolidate his power. Despite this, the uprising has revealed inherent vulnerabilities in his rule, and it is uncertain how these will play out in the long term. While Putin seems to have temporarily successfully weathered the Wagner storm, the unpredictable tides of his political journey are far from complete.
Kemal Mohamedou is an intern at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP). He is a recent graduate of King’s College London and wrote his thesis on the Wagner Group’s activities in Africa.
