Beginning on Monday, April 22, British Foreign Secretary David Cameron embarked on a week-long trip across Central Asia. His visit took him to Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan – countries that typically fly under the radar both in terms of the Western foreign policy focus and in general discussions about geopolitics.
Cameron stated that his excursion was carried out with the goal of “signal[ing] a new era in relations between Britain and all of the Central Asia republics.” The trip is similar to the one made by French President Emmanuel Macron in 2023, who visited Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in an attempt to fortify France’s own Central Asian influence. Macron signed a variety of economic deals with both the Kazakh and Uzbek governments, partnering with them in industries such as agriculture and uranium. Cameron, now, is making similar commitments: in addition to announcing new programs to expand the study of the English language in the region, Cameron pledged to spend 50 million British pounds over the next three years on the countries’ development.
However, Cameron did not carry out his visit with the simple goal of strengthening the U.K.’s ties to a historically underlooked region. Collectively the five Central Asian countries (all of the countries listed previously, with the exception of Mongolia, which is considered an eastern Asian state) are bordered by Russia, China, and Iran – in other words, strategically situated in the center of regimes hostile to the West. The backdrop of the ongoing Russia–Ukraine War, in particular, provides clues to deciphering Cameron’s true mission. Central Asia has been accused of helping Russia sidestep Western sanctions, such as in the case of Kyrgyzstan, a country recently implicated in importing luxury vehicles totalling nearly 230 million U.S. dollars into Russia (clearly in violation of U.S. and E.U. sanctions banning the sale of luxury cars to Russia). Drawing countries like Kyrgyzstan into the Western bloc, and hence encouraging those countries to enforce wartime sanctions against Russia, would undoubtedly be influential in preventing the continuation of the Russia–Ukraine War. It would also deter Chinese economic influence that has been slowly making its way into Central Asia.
There are a few major hurdles that come with partnering with Central Asian states from a Western perspective. On the surface level, Cameron’s diplomatic visit is not all that abnormal: it is reasonable for a country to want to establish connections with other states that are strategically situated and offer opportunities for international trade. In addition to a prime geographic location, the CA5 hold coveted natural resources, such as oil and minerals important for the construction of electric cars. However, the extreme authoritarianism exhibited by the governments of the CA5 (again, excluding Mongolia) may cause some to analyze Cameron’s friendly rhetoric with raised eyebrows.
Take Kyrgyzstan, for instance. The landlocked nation of about 7 million people is a rather young republic, having gained independence from the U.S.S.R. in 1991. The 2010 Kyrgyz Revolution saw the ousting of president Kurmanbek Bakiyev followed by months of unrest and ethnic violence, eventually leading to a stronger parliamentary system of government and the establishment of a free press. However, though the turmoil of the 2010 revolution had a beneficial resolution, Kyrgyzstan is still marred by severe corruption. The democracy watchdog and research institution Freedom House rates Kyrgyzstan as “not free” and classifies it as a “consolidated authoritarian regime.” The former is mainly due to extreme concentration of power in the hands of the executive leader and the general erosion of the rule of law; the latter is due to detention of activists and discriminatory legislation. Allegations that the Kyrgyz government has imprisoned and abused journalists have also recently surfaced. Another watchdog, Transparency International, labeled Kyrgyzstan as a “country to watch” in 2023 due to the country’s alarming levels of democratic backsliding caused by the erosion of civil liberties compounded by state corruption presided over by President Sadyr Jarapov.
The other Central Asian states were subject to similar scrutiny by Transparency International. On the organization’s 2023 Corruption Perception Index (CPI), Turkmenistan received a score of 18/100, Tajikistan 20/100, Uzbekistan 33/100, and Kazakhstan 39/100. Turkmenistan’s score, notably, is lower than Afghanistan’s (20/100), and both Turkmenistan and Tajikistan fared more poorly on the CPI index than Russia (26/100). Transparency International attributed these low scores mainly to executive overreach into the judicial branches of the countries’ governments, as well as measures that make it easier for the government to avoid accountability.
Other factors that influence the political landscapes of the Central Asian states – and may pose hurdles to Western figures like Cameron who seek to establish ties to the region – relate to economics beyond the recent sanctions enacted largely as a response to the Russia–Ukraine War. Kazakhstan (which has the largest economy of the Central Asian countries) and Kyrgyzstan are both part of the Eurasian Economic Union (E.A.E.U.), an organization propelled mainly by Russia with the goal of achieving an economic coalition similar to that of the European Union but with post-Soviet states. While the actual power of the E.A.E.U. is not remotely close to that of the E.U. because the E.A.E.U. remains a loose confederation and not the true integrated Russia-central customs union that figures like Vladimir Putin seek, the economic interconnectedness between Russia and the Central Asian states poses problems for Western governments which seek to establish their own trade influence. China, the other major powerhouse east of the CA5, has been making its presence known as well: the path of the controversial New Silk Road project, a plan initiated by China in recent years with the self-proclaimed goal of facilitating global trade and infrastructure development, runs right through Central Asia. Western figures have cited concern that the New Silk Road is a means for China to assert its economic hegemony, spelling future difficulties for the U.K. and similar countries who want to promote their own economies in young nations like the CA5.
Macron and Cameron are not the only leaders who have their eyes on the CA5. In September 2023, U.S. President Joe Biden met with the presidents of all five states at an inaugural meeting of the “CA5+1,” a U.S.-facilitated summit with the goal of discussing Central Asia’s “sovereignty, resilience, and prosperity [i.e., investment and defense], while also advancing human rights.…”
As Russia and China seem to keep reminding the world, though, building lasting ties with Central Asia will not be as simple as a few diplomatic meetings. Major deals will need to be made by Western states hoping to gain power in the region, and democracy-and-freedom-favoring leaders like Biden will need to contend with new partners accused of corruption and human rights abuses. The CA5 hold the key to influence in a contested region – whether Russia and China or the U.K. and its friends ultimately win the diplomatic war remains to be seen.
Image source: Wikimedia Commons
