On November 1st, 2024, voters in Botswana voted out the ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP), and the President of Botswana, Mokgweetsi Masisi, conceded his party’s defeat. The Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) coalition leader, Duma Boko, was elected president after the UDC won 36 seats, a majority of the seats in the parliament. The BDP was reduced to only four seats, placing it behind the UDC and two other parties in seat count. While the transition of power from one party to another is a common practice in democracies around the world, the results of Botswana’s election marked the first time any party other than the BDP will be in power in Botswana, ending the party’s 58-year rule since Botswana’s independence.
Botswana has been a multiparty democracy since its independence in 1966, which was rare in sub-Saharan Africa before the 1990s and is still rare today due to democratic decline in the region. The country also has one of the strongest democracies in Africa and enjoys an uncommon rating of “Free” from Freedom House. In Africa, only 7% of people live in countries with a “Free” rating and many countries in the continent have seen their rating drop over the past decade. Moreover, Botswana has been used as an example of a country that has broken the “resource curse”. The resource curse refers to a pattern in which countries with valuable natural resources often continue to be economically underdeveloped because their governments abuse their power over and mismanage the resources for politicians’ personal gain. Botswana is an exception because its economy has grown rapidly despite the fact it has some of the largest deposits of diamonds in the world.
That said, we should not overstate Botswana’s status as a multiparty democracy. Despite the democratic label and the “Free” ranking, its political history resembles that of other countries with dictatorial regimes—50% of which are nominally multi-party—since Botswana has never had a transition of power. With this being the first transition of power between parties since Botswana’s independence, we should look at what allowed the BDP to stay in power for decades and continue to win elections, and why an opposition party has never been in power prior to the November election. The peaceful transition of power is a hallmark of a healthy democracy, so Botswana’s first transition of power reaffirms its status as one of the strongest democracies in Africa. The peaceful transition of power in Botswana is especially significant because it stands in stark contrast to the patterns of democratic decline, corrupt elections, and loss of civil rights around the world.
The Botswana Democratic Party was founded as the Bechuanaland Democratic Party in 1962 by Seretse Khama, who would go on to become Botswana’s first president in 1966. Khama was the grandson of the chief of the Bagwato tribe, who was also one of the founders of the Bechuanaland Protectorate, the British protectorate in what is now Botswana. However, Khama was forced into exile from Botswana by the British House of Commons during its rule in Botswana for marrying a British woman, breaking the ban on interracial marriage. To return to Botswana, he was forced to give up the position of chief and become a private citizen. As a result, Khama founded the BDP, a moderate right-wing party, on the principles of non-racialism, unity, protection of human rights, and local governance, when Botswana was starting to decolonize since he could no longer use the position of chief to advocate for political change. Khama built the BDP on the model of European political parties, like the British Labour Party. The party was also founded to oppose the Botswana People’s Party, a left-wing Marxist and pan-Africanist party. Khama was able to grow the BDP with the support of the British who were planning on leaving the country and was able to attract broad support of the population because of his more moderate stances compared to the Marxist views of the Botswana People’s Party.
Botswana’s economy is mostly based on the export of diamonds, which has led to the country having one of the highest GDP per capita in Africa. However, Botswana has not always been as economically prosperous and was an agrarian country focused on beef exports immediately after its independence. This changed once Da Beers, a diamond company, discovered diamonds in Botswana in 1967. Da Beers and the government of Botswana then formed Debswana, a company that owns diamond mines across the country, with Da Beers and Botswana each owning 50% of the company. Botswana’s first two presidents, Seretse Khama and Quett Masire, both from the BDP, have been credited with using the profits from Debswana to invest in social services. Both made large investments in health and education, such as building public hospitals and universities, which led to a decrease in poverty, an increase in literacy, and children staying in school for longer nationwide. By playing key roles in the country’s development after its independence, early party leaders built trust in and support for the BDP, allowing the party to win elections decades after Khama and Masire left office. For instance, the next three presidents of Botswana — Festus Mogae, Ian Khama, and Mokgweetsi Masisi — have also been from the BDP.
Botswana’s first-past-the-post (FPTP) voting system for elections has also allowed the BDP to stay in power for decades. The FPTP system is a voting system in which each constituency is represented by the person who wins the most votes in the constituency. The FPTP system is used in the United Kingdom and many of its former colonies including the United States, India, and Botswana. In Botswana, the FPTP system is used in legislative elections, and the elected parliament then votes for the president, so the party that wins a majority of seats in the parliament gets to pick the president. The FPTP system has favored the BDP, the dominant party in Botswana, and the BDP has regularly won a larger seat share in Parliament than would have been proportional to its popular vote share. Opposition parties have split into multiple smaller parties many times throughout Botswana’s history, while the BDP has remained united as one party until 2010. For example, the Botswana National Front (BNF), which was once the main opposition to the BDP, had three smaller parties, the Botswana Workers Front, the United Socialist Party, and the Social Democratic Party, break off from it in the lead up to Botswana’s election in 1994 and also had a fourth party, the Freedom Party break off earlier in 1988. During the 1994 election, the BNF lost many of the constituencies that it once was very strong in to the BDP because of how split the opposition vote was.
However, the BDP also began to split into two factions, one led by then-President Ian Khama and the other led by opponents of Khama in the late 2000s. Eventually, in 2010, the faction opposing Khama completely broke from the BDP and formed the Botswana Movement for Democracy, which seven BDP members of parliament then joined. In contrast, opposition parties began to join together to form the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) coalition that had begun to start challenging the BDP’s electoral dominance. In the lead-up to Botswana’s 2014 election, the Botswana National Front, the Botswana Movement for Democracy, and the Botswana People’s Party formed the UDC in a move to prevent opposition vote splitting. In the 2014 election, the BDP retained its parliamentary majority but did not win a majority of the popular vote. While the UDC did not win a majority of the popular vote, when its popular vote share was combined with the Botswana Congress Party, which joined the UDC coalition prior to the 2019 election, the two won 53.55% of the popular vote. The unity of opposition parties under the UDC combatted the issues opposition parties had previously faced under the FPTP system and was key in defeating the BDP in the 2024 elections.
Another key factor in the defeat of the BDP was growing discontent with the party’s rule due to corruption and stagnant economic growth. Then-President Masisi and his administration had gained a reputation for corruption following actions like Masisi giving his sister a government contract valued at over $6 million in 2020. Allegations also surfaced that Masisi had interfered in Botswana’s judiciary to settle a land dispute case. The country saw its economic growth rate drop to just 1% due to decreased sales of diamonds worldwide. Many in the country blamed the BDP for the slow economic growth as well as their failure to develop other industries in the country besides diamond mining in their many years in power. Additionally, Botswana had growing income inequality fueled by a high unemployment rate of about 27%, which was turning Botswana’s growing young electorate against the BDP.
Now that President Duma Boko has been sworn in, he and his government plan to implement campaign promises like setting a nationwide minimum wage, increasing unemployment benefits, and supporting entrepreneurship programs. Most importantly, Boko is working to close a deal with Da Beers to increase the amount of diamonds the government of Botswana gets from Debswana, which had been started under Masisi’s administration but had been at risk following his party’s loss of power. Boko and the UDC also plan to establish a Constitutional Review Commission and implement a number of institutional reforms including creating independent oversight over the public sector and implementing a merit-based system for civil servants to eliminate the rampant corruption that existed under multiple BDP governments. The Constitutional Review Commission could potentially encourage changes that would alter institutions that allowed the BDP to maintain its power, like FPTP voting, and also improve representation.
President Boko plans to maintain Botswana’s historical policy of neutrality in matters of foreign policy. However, due to Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine and sanctions against Russian diamonds by the G7 and European Union, Boko has moved to create economic ties with the G7 standing in stark contrast to the BDP who were resistant to the G7 diamond sanctions on Russia. Boko announced that Botswana will be opening the second origin verification center for diamonds meant for export to G7 countries that will work along with the verification center in Belgium. The verification center in Botswana, which may be opening as soon as next year, will allow Botswana to verify the origin of its diamonds and now sell to G7 countries, whereas previously its diamonds would be mixed with Russian diamonds and sold through locations like Dubai in the UAE and Surat in India. Now that Botswana can export its diamonds to the G7 countries, it could potentially seek higher prices due to reduced competition and more ethical sourcing in order to counteract the country’s stagnant economic growth. Additionally, Botswana’s new partnership with the G7 could potentially mark the beginning of a shift away from economic neutrality, since Botswana has become a key partner for the G7 in Africa. For example, Angola has also agreed to verify the origin of their diamonds through Botswana’s verification center once it opens and has also announced that the significant Russian-owned stake in Angola’s diamond production will be sold to an Omani investment fund. The G7 and Botswana have also been in talks with Namibia, another major diamond producer in Africa, to enter into a similar agreement.
Additionally, the loss of the BDP may be a sign of the weakening of the Former Liberation Movements of Southern Africa (FLMSA), a group of seven political parties from Botswana, Angola, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe, that played a major role in their respective country’s independence and decolonization. The FLMSA also maintains close relations with China and many of the parties that form the group have moved their respective countries to sign onto China’s Belt and Road Initiative. However, the BDP’s loss in Botswana is the first time one of the parties in the FLMSA will no longer be in the governing majority in their country. While the remaining parties still remain governing parties, many have suffered poor election results or have won in elections that have been deemed corrupt. After South Africa’s 2024 election, the ruling African National Congress lost its legislative majority and was forced to form a coalition government to stay in power. Similarly in Angola, the ruling People’s Movement for the Liberation of Angola won a very small majority and its main opposition party had its best electoral performance ever in the country’s 2022 election. The ruling parties in Zimbabwe and Mozambique were both reelected but both elections face allegations of corruption and rigging from opposition parties. In contrast to many of the countries ruled by a party in the FLMSA, Botswana held a fair election that caused the ruling party to lose power, highlighting the relative strength of Botswana’s democracy in comparison to its regional neighbors.
While Boko and the UDC undertake the reforms they campaigned on, it cannot be understated how historic it is for Botswana to be governed by a party that is not the BDP. At Boko’s inauguration, in response to Masisi being booed by the crowd, Boko acknowledged how truly historic it was for Masisi to give up power and allow Boko to assume the presidency, stating, “Botswana has set the example of a true democracy at work for the whole world to see and emulate. For that singular act, the former president will remain inscribed prominently in our hearts.”
