How the U.S. Withdrawal of Development Programs Is Fueling Conflict in the DRC and Threatening Regional Stability

US involvement in the Democratic Republic of Congo through its renowned USAID (U.S. Agency for International Development) has historically been a vital contributor to development efforts, bolstering human capital in infrastructural development, strengthening governance, combating diseases and promoting economic advancements. 

After less than 30 days in office, the Trump administration’s decision to terminate 90% of USAID’s foreign aid contracts in mid February poses huge risk for the people of the Democratic Republic of Congo, with potential escalation reverberations across the region. 

The DRC is the continent’s second-largest nation, with a population of 111 million people bordering 9 different countries across the continent. The DRC is home to approximately 60% of the world’s cobalt reserves, a critical resource for technological devices, renewable energy and critical devices upon which billions throughout the globe rely upon. Moreover, the country is home to large deposits of iron ore, gem-quality diamonds, gold, lithium and further valuable mineral resources. The DRC has been subject to decades of conflict, particularly in the mineral-rich east of the nation, led by domestic insurgents and foreign armed groups who are driven to seek control over the vast natural resources. 

Despite the rich natural wealth of the nation, as of 2023 approximately 73.5% of the Congolese population lived below the International Poverty Line of $2.15 per day, with 64.5% of the population experiencing multidimensional poverty. The DRC is the country most affected by food insecurity worldwide, with an estimated 23.4 million Congolese citizens suffering from severe food insecurity. 

Prior to the dismantling of the USAID’s international projects, USAID was the largest bilateral donor to the country, in 2023 alone providing $936 million in aid towards addressing food insecurity and malnutrition, infectious diseases, education and workforce development, peacebuilding programs in conflict zones and much more. 

The loss of USAID funding to the delicate situation in the DRC has resulted in a disruption in humanitarian aid, halting of programs providing education, and crucially the collapse of peacebuilding programs in regions controlled by M23 rebels. 

The loss of USAID funding comes at a time of a sharp escalation in fighting between the March 23 Movement (M23) and the Congolese army (FARDC). In January of 2025, the M23 rebels launched a new offensive in critical cities Goma and Bukavu located in the mineral rich eastern DRC. Since the beginning of the year, over 7 million people have been internally displaced within the country, relying upon humanitarian resources for survival. 

Historically, USAID has funded peacebuilding infrastructure in the North Kivu and Ituri regions. The suspension of over $1 billion in aid has halted local mediation efforts that had slowed conflict escalation in contested regions between 2023 and 2024. Moreover, with the record high displacement in the DRC climbing to 7.8 million people, with nearly half of them being children, there is an increased risk that youth may view joining armed insurgent groups such as the M23 rebels or the Mai-Mai militia as their only survival opportunity. Overwhelming amounts of the child victims were reliant upon educational infrastructure upheld by USAID funding. And with a loss of education, there will likely be a rise in child soldier recruitment. 

Moreover, early conflict warning systems in the DRC and data collection have historically been funded in part by USAID. Therefore, the funding suspension will likely leave emerging conflict undetected and gathering of data on conflict indicators compromised, both of which will minimise proactive measures by the FARDC and international community. 

A report from the ACAPS, a data-driven humanitarian analysis group, contends that “the suspension of USAID funding jeopardizes vital humanitarian programs and projects addressing food security, protection, health, and WASH needs, threatening the response to the conflict and resulting in further displacements.”

The potential for regional spillover of the conflict in the Congo is further intensified by the loss of USAID funding with the lack of precautionary warning systems, loss of humanitarian resources, and loss of community-based stabilization work, which were all backed by USAID funding. With the loss of humanitarian resources in Congo previously provided by USAID, thousands of conflict refugees have sought refuge in neighboring countries, increasing international tensions with the Congo. 

USAID also supported the East African Community (EAC), the African Union (AU), and the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR) in diplomatic convenings and regional support, civil society cross-border dialogues, and provided technical support to mediation teams. The ACAPS Humanitarian Briefing this month has warned that “[t]he funding pause disrupts community-based stabilization work, which is essential to avoid ethnic reprisals and displacement crises.”

As a result, international actors neighboring the Congo have increase militarization in the absence of mediation, with Rwanda mobilizing greater forces along the border and approximately 3,000 to 4,000 Rwandan troops operating alongside M23 rebels, Burundian forces joining the Congolese army to slow advances in the South, and similarly Uganda deploying forces to cities in the East such as Bunia to support Congolese forces. 

In order to minimize the devastation of the violent conflict executed by the M23 rebels in Congo, the following are recommendations to minimize conflict in the DRC and promote sustainable peace. 

(1) Re-establish local Peace Committees:

In order to strengthen local involvement and minimize the building of further ethnic tensions, it is critical to invest in civil society peacebuilding through funding directed toward organizations like the Mercy Corps and Search for Common Ground. These organizations are dedicated to providing training and financial support for youth and women’s peace ambassadors, enabling them to engage vulnerable populations who are at high risk of joining insurgent groups.

By providing funding to train more peace committees (particularly in the Great Lakes region), peacekeepers will also be able to mediate disputes between communities and prevent ethnic tension rise.  

(2) Relaunch the CEWS infrastructure:

Restart the African Union’s Continental Early Warning System (CEWS) paired with local observation networks known as Rapid-response mechanisms that alert representatives from the ICGLR, UN and AU to act diplomatically within 72 hours of a red flag alert. This would ensure that conflict is addressed swiftly and minimizes the loss of life associated. 

(3) Host an Emergency Summit of the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR):

Convene heads of state from the Democratic Republic of Congo, Rwanda, Uganda, Burundi, Angola, South Sudan, and other African Union/UN mediators. The Emergency Summit should focus on the following objectives. Enforcing tariffs for countries that support armed forces by proxy. Reestablishing regional security agreements and intelligence exchanges between all parties. Launch region truth and reconciliation initiative to address historical grievances. Calling for the resumption of U.S. development aid for community stabilization procedures, investment in health, food security and education, and focus on governance reform. Creating a schedule of summit meetings to meet regularly and ensure a joint effort in combating insurgent violence and addressing the regional political strife.