As the war in Ukraine nears the three-year mark since Russia’s invasion, both sides have become increasingly reliant on outside state actors to support their military campaigns. North Korea and China continue to supply Russia’s aggressive invasion with various forms of aid. While support for Russia’s war effort grows throughout East Asia, the election of Donald Trump threatens to disrupt the flow of American aid to Ukraine. While Russia and Ukraine have a direct stake in the outcome of the war for their national security, the United States, North Korea, and China each have their own geopolitical and economic incentives that motivate their extensive involvement in the conflict.
As international involvement has escalated in Ukraine, the “proxy war” label has increasingly been used to describe the conflict. Oxford Dictionary defines a proxy war as a conflict “in which a third party intervenes indirectly in a pre-existing war in order to influence the strategic outcome in favor of its preferred faction.” Despite the efforts of governments to downplay their involvement in Ukraine, the war is now largely fueled and sustained by outside powers like the United States, China, and North Korea.
In February of 2022, Russia launched a military invasion of Ukraine that has since evolved into a full-scale war. Until late October, Russia and Ukraine were the only two states with troops actively involved in combat. By October of 2022, Russia had annexed four Ukrainian territories. In August of 2024, Ukraine launched a somewhat successful counter-offensive, even seizing some Russian territory. However, since then Russia has continued to make advances into Ukrainian territory and there has been little success at de-escalation from either side.
Since Russia’s invasion in 2022, the United States has provided substantial military aid to Ukraine. The Department of State estimates that American aid to Ukraine since February of 2022 has consisted of military equipment worth approximately $61.4 billion. American equipment is used by Ukrainian forces in almost every area of combat and is more comprehensive than ever, now including not only air defense systems, but both short and long range ammunition and artillery, ground vehicles, aircraft, maritime equipment, and more. The United States is by far the largest source of aid to Ukraine in the world. In comparison, Germany is the country with the second largest share of aid to Ukraine worth just over $11 billion. Additionally, the United States provides Ukraine with strategic intelligence and military advising. Just short of introducing American troops on the ground in Ukraine, the United States is involved in almost every other aspect of Ukrainian defense.
As the war has progressed, the commitment of Americans to unconditional support for Ukraine has weakened. An August 2022 Gallup poll found approximately 66% of Americans supported reclaiming Ukrainian territory over bringing a quick end to the war. As of this past December, only 48% of Americans continue to favor reclaiming Ukrainian territories over ending the war quickly. While public opinion may have shifted, American foreign policy continues to focus on bolstering the Ukrainian military rather than pursuing peace negotiations, with the latest American aid package totaling about $1.25 billion in military equipment. Clearly, the trend in American public opinion for ongoing defense aid to Ukraine is not consistent with the U.S. Government’s foreign policy goals.
Despite the increasingly popular opinion that America should shift its priorities toward bringing about a swift end to the war, some argue that continued support for Ukraine may also benefit the United States. According to one study, about 90% of the money allocated for aid to Ukraine never leaves the United States. Because most of the munitions and equipment sent to Ukraine are fully assembled in the United States, ongoing aid to Ukraine could lead to an increase in domestic manufacturing jobs and economic growth. Another argument for the continuation of American support of the war effort in Ukraine is that it could help set a precedent for other NATO countries in Europe to take on more of an economic burden in international security and defense going forward. There are now 11 members of NATO spending more than 2% of their GDP on defense, compared to only two NATO members before the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
While the United States has been heavily involved in the war in Ukraine since its inception, North Korea just recently elevated its involvement in the conflict. Since last summer, North Korea has supplied Russia with weapons including artillery shells and ballistic missiles. But in late October, North Korea took the unprecedented step of deploying troops to assist the Russians in their ground invasion of Ukraine. The alarming move directly contradicts the strict isolationist policies practiced by North Korea throughout the 21st century. North Korea is often referred to as a “Hermit Kingdom,” because it is one of the most isolated countries in the world. The country is known for cutting off its citizens from any outside influence, having little to no foreign trade relations, and maintaining a strict closed border policy since the COVID-19 pandemic. North Korea has never involved itself in a foreign military operation until now. Not only does sending troops thousands of miles to Ukraine represent a clear departure from North Korea’s isolationist practices, but it is also a sign that the war in Ukraine may continue to escalate and expand.
While North Korea may not have a direct stake in the outcome of the war, most assume that North Korea will expect reciprocity for its aid to Russia. Some speculate that North Korea could be seeking nuclear technology or information to support the development of their nuclear weapons program from Russia in exchange for the recent deployment of North Korean troops to Ukraine. Additionally, North Korea is expected to leverage its significant military support for Russia to support its efforts to join the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and other international organizations. The CSTO is a mutual security pact between Russia and five other countries formerly part of the Soviet Union. Joining the CSTO would offer North Korea increased defense capabilities and further solidify their anti-Western alliance with Russia, ultimately, cementing their strong partnership with Russia and advancing their efforts to gain international prestige for years to come.
North Korea is not the only country to back the Russian war effort, with China also supporting Russia through trade. When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 it was met with harsh trade sanctions from many Western states opposed to Russia’s aggression, including the United States. However, Russia’s economy quickly recovered and is even estimated to have grown by approximately 0.7% in 2023. Russia’s ability to weather Western sanctions can be attributed in part to backing from China. In 2023, trade between China and Russia increased by about 26 percent from the previous year. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has made clear that the majority of Russia’s “battlefield goods” are currently imported from China. While these goods do not include weapons per se, China’s provision of “dual-use technologies” to Russia is critical to the offensive in Ukraine. China has also been one of the few countries to publicly oppose Western sanctions against Russia. Without China’s economic support, it is likely that Russia’s war effort would not be financially sustainable.
China’s motives for supporting the Russian military campaign differ from North Korea’s concern with international recognition. Trade with Russia has significantly benefited the Chinese economy since the beginning of the conflict. While China exports a wide variety of goods, Russia relies almost entirely on crude oil exports. Consequently, China has experienced a trade surplus with Russia, which has led to significant economic growth for China and caused Russia to become dependent on machinery imported from China. The growth in trade networks with Russia will continue to benefit the Chinese economy even after the war. Western trade sanctions on Russia, intended to weaken the Russian economy, have had underwhelming effects on the Russian war effort and have instead resulted in a more advanced trade partnership between Russia and China.
The war in Ukraine, which began as a regional conflict, has developed into a global war with outside state actors fighting for their own geopolitical and economic interests. The involvement of the United States, North Korea, and China has transformed the regional war into an international proxy conflict. While Ukraine and Russia will feel the consequences of the war most directly, the other states involved will be impacted by the conflict’s ramifications concerning international alliances, institutions, and trade relationships. The escalation of the war in Ukraine has forced states to consider the balance between the pursuit of global peace and the pursuit of domestic prosperity. Ultimately, the more the war expands internationally, the more difficult it will be for the domestic interests of every party involved to align with a peaceful end to the conflict.
