Two days after Donald Trump won the United States presidential election in November, Russian president Vladimir Putin took the stage in Sochi, Russia. “In a sense,” he announced, “the moment of truth is coming.”
Now, over a month into Trump’s presidency, Putin’s declaration is taking on new meaning: the moment of truth is here, but it is here not just for Russia or the US. The ramifications of this moment of truth will reverberate on a global scale.
Trump is prioritizing might over diplomacy, and by doing so, he is effectively rewriting the rules of US diplomacy. In each new foreign policy action he has taken since the inauguration, he has revealed his “contempt for anything that looks like cooperation between the strong and the weak,” as journalist and novelist George Packer explains. This is the era of the strongman, and Trump has signaled a strong desire to rule like one. He has made clear that it is his view, just as it is Putin’s and Xi Jinping’s, that the most powerful countries should be able to determine the rules of the road, while smaller, less powerful countries have no choice but to listen and follow.
Accordingly, Trump has been flexing the US’s power from the moment he stepped into office. He has suspended aid to Ukraine; turned his back on Europe; ignited a trade war; sent asylum seekers escaping persecution in China, Iran, and Afghanistan to a remote camp in Panama; and threatened to annex Canada; bomb Mexico, buy Greenland; take over the Panama Canal; and “clean out” Gaza.
Through these actions, the US has taken a sledgehammer to its previous policy positions, alienated its allies, and lost much of its international credibility. And in exchange? Trump has garnered only trivial political gains and “great television.” Trump inherited a country of tremendous power, one underpinned by a set of strong alliances and the world’s largest economy. Now, through his actions, he is taking it apart.
On the international front, this is dangerous for three main reasons.
First, by estranging the US’s allies, Trump is chipping away at the country’s position as a dominant world leader, which will eventually undermine its influence in international affairs. Trump has created artificial crises in relations with both Denmark and Canada, two of the US’s closest allies for over 80 years. In doing so, as historian and professor Timothy Snyder contends, he has created a “bloodily moronic situation in which the United States will have to fight wars to get the things that, just a few weeks ago, were there for the asking.” Trump’s claim that the US should absorb Canada and Greenland in no way benefits the US. Instead, as French center-right politician Claude Malhuret argues, he is only proving to Denmark, Canada, and the US’s allies at large that “being his ally serves no purpose, as he will not defend you.” Without strong and dependable allies, the US’s influence wanes. Trump is therefore working the US into what has the potential to be a very tight spot: fighting meaningless battles while cut off from long-standing security advancements and diminished in international importance.
Second, Trump’s actions are likely to harm America’s long-term security. Trump has instigated a strategic surrender to Putin in an attempt to end the Ukraine war, preemptively ceding crucial and long-held positions to Moscow because he wants “to see it end fast.” Prioritizing speed, he is not considering the costs of such a deal. Putin’s ambitions go beyond Ukraine, and he is not negotiating in good faith. He has made it abundantly clear that he aims to establish a new, dominant position for Russia in Europe. A deal with Trump is not going to sway him from this goal. Therefore, Trump’s haste to reach a deal – practically granting Putin everything he wishes – will imperil Europe and make Russia a more assertive and attractive ally to the US’s adversaries around the world.
Third, Trump is rewriting international norms and expectations – and not in a good way. Jon Favreau, political commentator and former speechwriter for President Barack Obama, points out that the world has been watching every move Trump has made. As Trump has threatened to take over Canada and Greenland, demeaned Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and ceded to Putin, “all the bad actors in the world” have been watching and realizing that “Trump and the United States aren’t going to step in” if they decide to do something similar.
Consequently, this is the emerging picture of the world order: international relations and foreign policy are no longer being determined by multilateral rules and institutions. Instead, they will be decided by strongmen and business-esque deals. Former MI6 chief Alex Younger says that this is “Donald Trump’s mindset, certainly Putin’s mindset [and] Xi Jinping’s mindset.” The post-World War II world order has held for 80 years, managing to stave off wars among the great powers. But now it’s collapsing. Norms are being ignored, allies turned against, and might now makes right.
“A serious, irreconcilable struggle is unfolding for the development of a new world order,” Putin said in Sochi. Malhuret described it as a “war.” This is the moment of truth. What happens over the next months and years of Trump’s presidency will have far-reaching consequences that will change fundamental aspects of the US’s international relations, as well as geopolitics more broadly. The new world order is turning the previous one on its head, but this is a change – an irreconcilable struggle, a war – that will not happen quietly. “We were at war with a dictator,” said Malhuret on Europe’s stand against Putin. “Now we are at war with a dictator backed by a traitor.”