Many remember Trump’s first presidency by his trade war with China and controversial statements about COVID-19’s origins there. Before imposing tariffs, Trump initially showed admiration for Chinese President Xi Jinping, which only adds to uncertainty around his unconventional legislative style. His emphasis on personal diplomacy has often led to misunderstandings, overreactions, and an overall chaotic and unstable U.S.-China relationship. On the contrary, Biden’s more structured diplomatic approach focused on economic discussions and maintained open channels for dialogue on critical issues such as tariffs, technology restrictions, and financial stability.
After Trump’s victory in the recent election, China’s Foreign Ministry stated that it “respected” America’s choice and stressed “mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation.” Meanwhile, Xi personally congratulated Trump, expressing hope that their nations could “find the right way” to “get along in the new era.” Despite the plunging U.S.-China relations during Trump’s previous term, Trump has often praised Xi as a “very good friend,” consistent with his admiration for authoritarian leaders. This dual response from China reveals both caution and optimism, underscoring the delicate balance of U.S.-China diplomacy. Additionally, there is uncertainty surrounding whether Trump will follow through on his campaign promises or pursue a policy approach similar to his first term. From an economic standpoint, Trump’s campaign proposal to impose a 60 percent tariff on all Chinese goods could further destabilize China’s economy, perhaps sabotaging its current growth model and cutting its growth by up to two percentage points. While China’s economy is currently struggling with a housing crisis, dwindling consumer demand, failing prices, and rising local government debts, it remains heavily driven by exports and manufacturing.
Trump’s potential move would not only impact China but also American consumers, particularly lower-income households. While Biden’s tariffs targeted key sectors rather than broad-based goods, Trump’s tariffs could lead to a significant increase in the price of everyday goods. Moreover, this will impact other economies that are reliant on global supply chains and industries that depend on international inputs. In retaliation, China would likely impose its own tariffs on the U.S., while U.S. allies, such as the European Union, Japan, and South Korea, might respond with tariffs on American goods. This would create a state of fear and confusion as countries and companies begin to brace for a trade war. On a larger scale, an escalating trade war risks isolating the U.S. and diminishing its global economic influence.
Conversely, Trump’s policies might create new opportunities for China to exploit. For instance, China may seek to strengthen economic ties with Europe, anticipating that Trump’s tariff policies will be unpopular there – especially if Trump already plans on distancing the U.S. from the alliances and institutions that Biden has worked to preserve, such as NATO. Trump has previously stated that he would not support NATO allies in the event of a Russian attack if they do not meet spending targets, signaling a shift from traditional U.S. commitments. Historically, Washington has attempted to contain China through initiatives like an “Asian NATO.” The U.S. has defense treaties with the Philippines, Japan, and South Korea, and this past April, an unprecedented trilateral summit brought together the Philippines, Japan, and the U.S.. However, if Trump disengages from such international alliances, China could focus on the Global South, asserting its influence more freely.
A Trump presidency could dramatically reshape China-Europe relations. Trump has maintained that he could quickly end the war in Ukraine, and if U.S.-Russia relations were to improve, they could drive a wedge between Russia and China. Notably, Trump views China, rather than Russia, as the U.S.’s main adversary.
Regarding Taiwan, the previous Trump administration demonstrated support for the country through increased arms sales and diplomatic visits. Yet, during his campaign, Trump asserted that Taiwan should “pay” for US protection and accused it of “stealing” the chip industry from the U.S., illustrating Trump’s transactional stance toward Taiwan. This is ironic considering the country built its semiconductor industry independently and has been a main purchaser of U.S. weaponry. In an interview, Trump suggested that China would not invade Taiwan because Xi respected him and knew Trump was “crazy.” Sensing ambivalence, China may seek to leverage economic incentives and coercive tactics to push the U.S. toward reducing its military and political backing for Taiwan.
In response to technology restrictions, Trump is certain to prioritize national security considerations, which will add another layer of regulations that embody the U.S.-China relationships. He is expected to uphold Biden’s export controls on advanced technologies relating to AI and semiconductors, potentially restricting China’s access to these technologies even further. Regarding autonomous vehicle technology, Trump will also need to decide whether to continue limiting Chinese access. Amid rising tensions over Taiwan and fears of Chinese espionage, Trump is anticipated to advocate for even stricter technology controls.
Should Trump maintain and expand his China policies, the result may be an era marked by heightened tension, confrontation, and diminished cooperation. It remains uncertain whether a severe economic crisis could be on the horizon – or if the U.S.-China relationship can withstand another Trump presidency.
Image source: Wikimedia Commons
