Author

Jade Faircloth

Featured Geopolitics Security and Conflict

The Reshuffling of Power in the 21st Century

The international system is marked by shifts in power. Historically, the international power structure has cycled through a carousel of unipolarity, bipolarity, and multi-polarity, with some periods lasting longer than others. The current power reshuffle – marked by the declining power of the U.S. – foreshadows yet another transfer in power.

While the second half of the 20^th century was characterized by the bipolar relationship between the United States and Russia, the 21^st century has exhibited various geopolitical power shifts with the emergence of new actors that have challenged the status quo. According to Mearsheimer, a leading scholar in the field of offensive realism, as the United States attempts to maintain its hegemony in other regions worldwide, it has struggled to cope with the emergence of new actors and realignment of alliances. These power shifts were prompted by various factors such as societal changes, economic growth, technological advancements, changes in political leadership, and military developments. Furthermore, struggles within the United States, such as economic challenges, political polarization, and doubts about its role in international leadership, have allowed other powers to rise and assert themselves on the global stage.

Globalization has been a major driving factor for several decades through fostering greater economic, cultural, and political interconnectedness across national borders. However, this trend has declined in recent years, primarily due to geopolitical tensions and rivalries between major powers. As a result, this has contributed to a breakdown in global institutions and cooperation on issues such as trade, climate change, and security.

First, the rise of China as a global economic powerhouse has served as a prominent threat to the current status quo. Through its Belt and Road Initiative, China has expanded its economic influence across Asia, Africa, and Europe and challenged the traditional dominance of Western powers. Not only has this boosted China’s economic power, but it has also expanded its diplomatic influence, as seen in partnerships and investments historically dominated by Western powers. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is President Xi’s infrastructure project to link East Asia and Europe and has since expanded to include Africa, Oceania, and Latin America. In addition to physical infrastructure and expanding the international use of Chinese currency, China has also funded hundreds of special economic zones to create jobs and foster technological advances. So far, 147 countries have signed onto the project or indicated interest, which make up two-thirds of the world’s population and 40 percent of global GDP. However, the BRI has led to environmental concerns and concerns of a “debt trap” for developing countries due to its lack of transparency. Essentially, the BRI has led to increased Chinese economic and geopolitical influence globally, allowing China to leverage its economic power through forging ties with participating countries. This challenges the existing global order traditionally dominated by Western powers and promotes regional blocs centered around Chinese influence. Thus, this would contribute to increased competition between China and other global powers.

In response, Washington has remained skeptical but has not offered participating governments a more appealing offer. While the Obama administration proposed the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) to advance U.S. strategic interests in the Asia-Pacific Region, President Trump withdrew from the deal on his first day of office and the new version of the pact, the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), has progressed the same agenda without the United States involvement. Moreover, President Joe Biden asserted he does not support rejoining TPP but would renegotiate it to include stronger labor and environmental provisions. This poses questions about the United States’ role in shaping the world economy and its role in the Asia-Pacific Region.

In Europe, Russia has actively pursued its geopolitical interests through challenging Western dominance and expanding its sphere of influence. For instance, when Russian forces invaded Georgia in 2008, Moscow suffered few negative consequences and the Obama administration called for reconciliation with the Kremlin. Likewise, Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 and was met only with international condemnation and U.S. economic sanctions. Additionally, Russia has insisted that NATO should renounce any further expansion of its membership and demilitarization of Eastern European states that were previously part of its Cold War empire. This indicates how Russia has moved to alter the post-Cold War agreements through asserting its power over Eastern European states. As Russia invaded Ukraine, many Westerners view this invasion as a renewed geopolitical rivalry between major world players and resentment towards NATO’s post-Cold War expansion.

Like China, Russia has also sought to strengthen ties with countries in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, particularly in regions where it perceives Western influences to be waning. For instance, Russia intervened in Syria’s civil war to extend its sphere of influence and challenge Western dominance. Russia’s success showed the world its ability to deter the West and how the West did not push back decisively. Overall, Putin never suffered a serious consequence for supporting Assad, especially since the Obama administration chose to support the Russia-brokered deal to remove Syrian chemical weapons instead of enforcing the 2013 red line.

The United States’ relaxed response to Russia’s aggression and growing influence in other regions have prompted other states to act similarly. Specifically, Beijing is waiting to see how the US. will respond to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This will influence how China acts in the Indo-Pacific region. Currently, China has not invaded Taiwan, but depending on how the war progresses in Ukraine, China may invade Taiwan if the U.S. continues its unsuccessful deterrence strategy. Furthermore, China may ramp up its aggression in the South China Sea towards Japan regarding the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands territorial dispute. Evidently, if the U.S. fails to impose harsh consequences on Russia or intervene in the conflict, this would facilitate the imminent deterioration of U.S. global power.

Despite the recent decline in globalization and the breakdown of global institutions, globalization still plays a prominent role in shaping the world. The complex and dynamic nature of geopolitical power shifts are essential to navigating the evolving international landscape. Thus, new trends have begun to reshape the power structure based on rising regional powers and a decline in U.S. influence. In particular, China and Russia serve as regional hegemonies that seek to disrupt the status quo and challenge the United States’ power. We cannot be certain that the forthcoming power structure will embody, but one thing is certain: the United States must learn to adapt to and manage changing geopolitical realities.

Image source: GR Stocks on Unsplash

April 8, 2024 0 comment

Image from Wikimedia Commons: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:NZ_Army_soldier_and_NZLAV_in_Afghanistan.jpg

Featured Middle East Terrorism United States

Navigating International Terrorism from an American Point of View

written by Jade Faircloth

The events of September 11th (9/11) permanently altered the security foundations of the United States. 9/11 not only destabilized American dominance over global operations but also raised questions about the direction of the United States’ position in world politics. Terrorist activities are not a new development in the international realm, but 9/11 has since prompted the United States specifically to dedicate more time and attention toward the fight against terror.

In addressing terrorism, the major problem the international community faces is defining what constitutes terrorism and the legal regulations needed to address it. This problem stems from the international community’s inability to pinpoint a single group or individual responsible, as terrorist groups tend to have a broad range of activities and sometimes operate across multiple regions.

Post-9/11, the international scope of terrorism has expanded as citizens have adapted to a “new normal,” which includes the fearful possibility of a future, sudden terrorist attack. And, within this sphere, the United States’ spending on counterterrorism efforts, such as advanced technology and special operations, have not always proven fruitful, especially since those funds could have been invested in domestic safety and security. Counterterrorism spending has become a heated subject of public debate through American involvement in the politics of the Middle East, mostly through military intervention.

Suicide attacks were almost nonexistant before 9/11, after which they skyrocketed because Osama Bin Laden declared that all American citizens were legitimate targets. In response, the U.S. completely transformed its domestic security and foreign policy through becoming heavily involved in the Middle East. Suicide bombings in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iraq are now a regular occurrence and often a preferred weapon for terrorist organizations. In fact, Al Qaeda is known for its ability to carry out deadly suicide bombings and administer a large numbers of civilian casualties.

In response, the United States has increased its military intervention in this region, thus deeply affecting its relationship with the Muslim world. The United States has failed to coordinate with regional governments to address the rise of suicide bombings. For instance, governments have failed to identify legitimate suicide vest factories or properly regulate explosive munitions stockpiles. Overall, the United States must learn how facilitate cooperation in order to address the transnational smuggling networks and prevent future suicide bombings.

Recent events in Afghanistan have fueled fears that the Taliban are a larger threat now to the United States (and the West) with their takeover of the country. The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 was characterized by a sharp partisan divide and debates about whether the United States should accept refugees from Afghanistan. While Democrats were more in favor of withdrawing troops, Republicans, on the other hand, advocated for the continued posting of troops to “defend against terrorism.”

Many Americans now worry about America’s ability to conduct counterterrorism operations after seeing the aftermath of the U.S. occupation of Afghanistan. After the U.S. withdrew in 2021, Afghanistan appears to be in a similar or worse political state prior to 9/11, thus reversing the twenty years of progress. Many fear Afghanistan could become a terrorist safe haven, as the Taliban is firmly in control of the country.

The once-widespread belief about the unquestionable power of the United States has dwindled over the years, as American authority over international politics has not always contributed to a lasting, productive strategy. In navigating foreign policy, the United States has failed to guarantee enduring peace and independence. The current American strategy has not completely protected the United States from acts of terror, and furthermore, the country has not been successful in adopting a successful, aggressive strategy of military intervention, specifically in the Middle East. Thus, the United States must work on finding new approaches. For instance, the United States could encourage regional partners to confront terrorist groups abroad and focus on specific threats against the American homeland. The United States could also incorporate durable peacebuilding approaches to combat instability and support various partners in the area in building mechanisms to resolve conflicts.

At the international level, the United Nations and the International Atomic Energy Agency have developed international legal instruments to prevent future attacks, including adopting a U.N. Global Counter-Terrorism Strategy that enhances national, regional, and international efforts to counter terrorism. Since terrorism has no borders, nationality, or religion, the international community must learn to work together and create a system with binding resolutions to address terrorism.

Evidently, the implications of international terrorism extend far beyond immediate security concerns of individual nations. Terrorism threatens the very framework of global security through creating an atmosphere of fear and uncertainty and undermining the rule of law. Moving forward, the United States and international community must learn to act as partners in promoting cooperation against terrorism.

Image source: CPL Sam Shepherd

February 2, 2024 0 comment