Democracy has been tested in Nigeria since 1960 when the country won its independence from Great Britain. For almost half its existence, Nigeria has been ruled by military dictators rather than civilian leaders. In fact, three democratically elected republics were overthrown by military coups, and two former presidents – who had also been democratically elected – led those dictatorships. In 1998, one military leader, General Abdulsalami Abubakar, promised a transition to democratic rule because the country was struggling economically and socially under dictatorship. He established the Independent National Electoral Commission to conduct and protect free elections. Since then, Nigeria has stood as Africa’s largest democracy.
Nigeria’s most recent election on February 25 was only its seventh national vote since the transition. It was also the first election in which none of the leading candidates were military commanders. And, most notably for the country’s democratic progress, its largest electoral cohort – and 84 percent of its 10 million newly registered voters – consisted of Nigerians aged 18 to 34. The young people of Nigeria were expected to make their voices heard, specifically against recent corruption, violence, and economic mismanagement in the country. Voters and pundits alike were inspired by hope and confidence in Nigeria as a cornerstone of democracy in West Africa – and the continent itself.
Recently, the youth population has become increasingly disaffected with the country’s floundering economy, lack of employment opportunities, and social immobility. They were thus anticipated to vote in droves to express their discontent. Reports from the country’s statistics agency claim that half of current Nigerians – and two-thirds of young people – are unemployed. In February, before the election took place, the Central Bank recalled banknotes of 200, 500, and 1,000 naira, effectively rendering them worthless. Replacement notes have been sparsely redispersed, but the process has created a cash shortage in an economy where millions depend on cash. Moreover, the country has grappled with a cost of living crisis, which results in young professionals forced to search for better opportunities elsewhere, such as the United States, Canada, or Europe. Fifty-two percent of young Nigerians want to emigrate, according to a 2021 World Bank report.
Even though a substantial turnout by the frustrated youth was predicted, the harsh reality was that this election set the record for the lowest turnout in a Nigerian presidential election. What happened? To understand, one must ascertain the extremely high expectations weighed on young Nigerians to deliver and preserve the fragile democracy.
Opposition to a violent police force called the Special Anti-Robbery Squad energized the youth into activism, setting expectations for a high youth voter turnout. The Special Anti-Robbery Squad, or SARS, was a police unit known for harassing, extorting, and even killing young people. The #EndSARS movement, established in 2020, was led by youth for youth. They were “fed up” with police violence, corruption, and dysfunction and were encouraged to register to vote to make their grievances known to the government. Ikemesit Effiong, head of research at the Lagos-based geopolitical consultancy SBM Intelligence, said, “It [#EndSARS protests] underscored for young people the need for direct engagement with the political and electoral system to reform and get it to be responsive to their needs.”
Because young voters’ turnout was so highly anticipated, some polls had predicted a victory for the third-party candidate, Peter Obi. Mr. Obi, a wealthy businessman, had a reputation for being frugal and accountable, which strongly resonated with the youth frustrated by the economy. He campaigned as a reformer, as a leader who would break free from the decades-long plague of governmental corruption. And, in contrast to other leaders – including the actual winner of the election, Bola Tinubu – he was not a “godfather”-like political figure, according to Joseph Siegle, director of research at the Africa Center for Strategic Studies.
Many Nigerians are surprised at the low turnout of the election – only 29 percent of registered citizens voted. Mr. Tinubu, the establishment candidate, won 8.7 million votes, or 36 percent of the final tally. Because there was such low turnout overall, Mr. Obi and his team are planning to dispute the election results through legal means. Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed, Mr. Obi’s running mate, claimed that “violence, voter intimidation, and suppression tainted the election.” But, no presidential election in Nigeria has ever been overturned, and it is unlikely that this election will be overturned, either.
Was it that young Nigerians were so disillusioned with their government or the flawed voting process that they felt their voices did not matter, their votes did not count? Or, were expectations for youth turnout just too high? The election’s low turnout was likely caused by a combination of both. Notwithstanding the low turnout, the potential power of the youth remains – the youth who are frustrated with a stagnant economy, upward social movement, and police violence. They have a voice and can use it, as evidenced by the #EndSARS movement. Yes, democracy was tested in the most recent election, and the turnout was dismal. But, a new generation of active and involved citizens is coming of age and can turn this around by using this low turnout – and its consequences – as motivation for increased activism in future elections.
