Donald Trump has begun his second term as President and one of his immediate goals for office was for the United States to buy Greenland from Denmark. At first glance, this desire seems outlandish and invokes the American idea of “Manifest Destiny.” However, upon closer inspection, it seems that this move is part of the United States’ nascent efforts to strengthen its position in the Arctic. As climate change melts Arctic sea ice, control of the Arctic will define the global economy and international security. However, for the United States and its allies, the Arctic has been a historically neglected geopolitical battleground. This has led to Russia and China developing a much stronger military and economic presence in the Arctic, which the United States and NATO are just now beginning to try to catch up to.
Eight countries are considered Arctic states: Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden, and the United States. These eight countries make up the Arctic Council, which works to promote cooperation between the countries on Arctic development and environmental protection. The primary law governing the region is the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Under UNCLOS, countries have exclusive economic zones up to 200 nautical miles from their coastline and a territorial sea up to 12 nautical miles from their coastline. The eight Arctic states have established their sovereignty over parts of the Arctic region through UNCLOS.
China is generally not considered an Arctic state since it has no territorial claims in the region under UNCLOS. But, in 2014, China declared itself a “Near-Arctic State,” a distinction not recognized under international law, and has sought to increase its involvement in the region. Since then, President Xi Jinping has made it a goal of his government to make China a “Polar Power.” To further this goal, China and Russia have developed a partnership to strengthen each other’s positions in the Arctic and combat NATO’s power in the region.
Economic gains and control over trade routes have been one of the main points of contention in the Arctic. By the summer of 2035, parts of the Arctic will not have ice, which will permit trade through the Arctic and shorten travel times between North America, Asia, and Europe. The key centerpiece of Russia and China’s Arctic alliance is the Polar Silk Road (PSR), which was first proposed in 2017. The PSR fits within China’s ongoing Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The BRI is China’s initiative to build physical infrastructure around the world to spread its influence. The PSR is specifically working to develop trade corridors through the Arctic and extract Arctic resources.
China is working with Russia on the PSR because of Russia’s territorial claim to the Northern Sea Route, which is one of the two Arctic sea routes. The United States has particularly struggled when dealing with the Arctic because it does not have control over either of the two routes. While Canada, an ally of the US, controls the Northwest Passage (the second of the two Arctic sea routes), the United States objects to Canada controlling it. Instead of working to establish trade cooperation with Canada and other Arctic countries, the United States has been more focused on making both Arctic trade routes considered international waters. The US has held the position that under UNCLOS, both Arctic routes cannot be regulated by one country because they are used for international navigation. This has not been a successful strategy because neither Russia nor Canada have backed off from their positions of controlling their respective sea routes.
Additionally, the United States and Canada have fallen behind Russia and China in developing trade infrastructure in the Arctic. Russia already has two operational Arctic ports in Murmansk and Sabetta, which it uses for trade and the extraction of natural gas. COSCO, a Chinese shipping company has begun shipping through the Arctic since 2013 and made 22 shipments through the Arctic between 2013 and 2018. On the other hand, the United States only began the development of its first deepwater Arctic port in early 2024 in Nome, Alaska. Canada is in the midst of completing its first two deepwater Arctic ports, but both have been marked with serious delays in completion. In 2022, close to 1,700 ships travelled through the Arctic, almost always going through Russia’s Northern Sea Route. Out of these ships most have been Russian or Chinese ships and almost none of them were Western ships since Russia heavily regulates the shipping traffic through the Northern Sea Route. The delay in building deepwater ports in the Arctic has put the US and Canada at a severe disadvantage in competing with Russia and China economically in the Arctic. Since Arctic trade will likely become very prevalent within the next decade, the United States and its allies will not be able to utilize the benefits of quicker travel times for trade through the Arctic as it stands right now. Over the next decade, the United States and Canada must invest in icebreaker ships to make the Northwest Passage usable for trade at the level of Russia’s Northern Sea Route.
Additionally, there has been growing militarization in the Arctic. Russia and China have been developing a stronger military alliance within the Arctic. Additionally, Russia has continued to build military infrastructure, while the US has closed numerous military installations in the Arctic region. For example, in July 2024, North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) intercepted Russian and Chinese bomber planes near Alaska. This marked the first time Russian and Chinese planes had been intercepted together near Alaska. However, the Chinese Defense Ministry later confirmed that the flight that had been intercepted was the eighth such aerial patrol conducted by both countries over the Bering Sea since 2019.
Russia has been working on reopening Soviet-era Arctic bases and strengthening its navy and weapon capabilities in the Arctic since 2005. After the end of the Cold War, the US Department of Defense shut down or downsized almost all of its Arctic bases in Alaska, especially since its focus has moved to other regions of the world. Additionally, NORAD’s North Warning System, which is responsible for protecting US Arctic airspace, is heavily reliant on aging radar technology, which could explain the delay in detecting Russia-China aerial patrols in the Arctic. Experts have stated that it will take the West close to ten years to catch up to Russia’s Arctic capabilities. Underdevelopment of military technology in the Arctic for the United States and its NATO allies drastically reduces their ability to respond to an attack by Russia or China through the Arctic. The United States has already been unable to detect Russian and Chinese flights in the Arctic which is concerning if either of the countries was to launch a full-scale attack on the United States or another NATO country.
Russia has also been harming Western infrastructure in the Arctic to further strengthen its position and has not claimed responsibility for the damage. In 2024, the Pentagon reported that Russia had been jamming the United States’ GPS systems in the Arctic. Other Arctic countries like Finland have reported similar cases of GPS jamming by Russia. Additionally, in 2021, a fiber-optic cable used by Norway to monitor activity on the Arctic seafloor had been suspiciously cut. Similarly, in 2022, two cables connecting the island of Svalbard to mainland Norway through the Arctic seafloor were also cut. In both these cases, Norway had to rely on weaker backup systems, exposing vulnerabilities in Norway’s communication systems in the Arctic. Although these two incidents could be unrelated or accidental and there is no proven link to Russian involvement, Norway’s defense chief has stated he thinks Russia is capable of carrying out these attacks.
Another example of Russia’s advantage in the Arctic is how it has been able to nuclearize the region, while the United States has largely refrained from taking similar actions. Russia has been largely secretive about its nuclear capabilities in the Arctic. However, Norway has detected high levels of Cesium-137, a radioactive isotope that can be used to make nuclear weapons, along its Arctic border with Russia. Russia has also developed eight nuclear icebreaker ships to use in the Arctic, which it can use both militarily or to support commercial trade. The country also maintains two complete nuclear power plants and has been rapidly building numerous nuclear reactors in the Arctic. In the past five years alone, Russia has increased the number of nuclear reactors it has in the Arctic by 30% and is predicted to have over 100 reactors within the next ten years. These reactors will not only provide the significant energy needed for continued Arctic infrastructure development for Russia, but also pose a great threat to the environmental safety of the region and could be used in the development of nuclear weapons. Russia’s nuclearization of the Arctic is deeply threatening to the United States and NATO because neither has anywhere near the same level of nuclear capabilities in the region.
However, the United States has begun to make significant progress in catching up to the capabilities of the Russia-China alliance in the Arctic with the collaboration of its NATO allies. Recently, Finland and Sweden became members of NATO in 2023 and 2024 respectively, joining the United States, Canada, Denmark, Iceland, and Norway as the Arctic NATO states. Finland and Sweden joining NATO means that all of the Arctic states besides Russia are part of NATO. This gives the United States and its NATO allies an improved position to catch up to Russia’s continuous Arctic investments and the Russia-China Arctic alliance. In late 2024, NATO, in partnership with Norway, opened an amphibious warfare center in Norway’s Arctic region. Within this new training center, troops from NATO countries like the United States and the United Kingdom are training in the Arctic conditions.
Additionally, in response to President Trump’s demands to buy Greenland, Denmark has committed a $2 billion investment in its Arctic military capabilities in Greenland. As part of the investment, Denmark is planning on purchasing patrol boats for the Arctic and modernizing aging military infrastructure. Denmark has moved to make these investments to show its commitment to NATO and that it is in line with the recent American focus on Arctic defense. Denmark’s political leaders believe that Trump is much more serious about buying and taking control of Greenland than he was during his first term in office, especially because of his threats of military action and high tariffs against Denmark. The larger goal of these investments is to quell Trump’s desire to gain control of Greenland, as well as ongoing calls for independence by Greenlanders. These recent Arctic investments by NATO countries show promise that NATO is planning on prioritizing its military capabilities in the Arctic. The United States and its Arctic allies within NATO have fallen far behind Russia in terms of their economic and military capabilities in the region, particularly now that Russia and China have developed a strong partnership in the region. The United States and NATO must focus more defense funding on the Arctic region. They must also prioritize rapid development of infrastructure in the Arctic to support and protect trade in the region. This will likely require hundreds of billions of dollars of investments into infrastructure and the development of modern military technology in the Arctic. This would match the over $90 billion China has invested in the Arctic and the over $300 billion Russia has committed to incentivizing Arctic infrastructure development. However, the US and its allies will likely need to commit even more money than China and Russia to match the Arctic capabilities of China and Russia because of US and its allies’ lack of development in the Arctic so far. As climate change melts Arctic ice, control over the Arctic will be a defining characteristic of the geopolitical landscape of the future. It is imperative that the United States and NATO not lose focus on matching the capabilities of the Russia-China Arctic alliance.
