In the wake of major Russian political dissident Alexei Navalny’s death in February, a prisoner swap between the United States and Russia seemed unlikely—even impossible—to most. August 1st, 2024 proved to be a turning point, however, when 16 prisoners were released from Russian captivity. This was a shock to many, especially since articles published even two weeks prior to the swap’s occurrence expressed uncertainty about when a prisoner swap may occur. The surprise exchange has set forth in motion conversations regarding a potentially less strained relationship between the U.S. and Russia, as well as ushering in the question of what’s next for the prisoners left behind; August’s prison swap was the largest swap between Russia and the U.S. since the Cold War.
Navalny rose to the global spotlight for his opposition of President Vladimir Putin in 2011, holding a significant presence as Putin’s main political opponent who lost a bid for Mayor of Moscow in 2013. Navalny was subsequently barred from running in the 2018 election in Russia due to falsified embezzlement charges. He survived a poisoning by Soviet nerve agent in 2020, recovered in Germany, and returned to Russia in 2021, where he was immediately detained. He was subsequently given years upon years in sentences and imprisoned, and ultimately died this February in a remote Siberian Prison.
Negotiations for the August prisoner swap have been in motion since late 2022, around the time American basketball player Britney Griner was released from Russian custody in exchange for Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout, who has since returned to the arms market. This was the last prisoner swap to include Russian spies since the beginning of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. However, there have been many roadblocks, such as Nalvalny’s significance to both sides creating a stalemate that effectively stalled negotiations after his death. Thus, his death stalled the negotiations significantly, with the West losing steam. For Russia, the release of assassin and Putin-ally Vadim Krasikov was non-negotiable, something that the U.S.’ allies struggled to grapple with, creating further hesitation by the West.
Among those released on the American side included Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, whose imprisonment under false claims of espionage in early 2023 sparked the hashtag “#FreeEvan,” and former Marine Paul Whelan, who was held in Russia for over five years due to claims of spying and previously expressed his outrage at being left behind in past exchanges, such as the Griner exchange. Many U.S. nationals have been detained under false claims of espionage and false or exaggerated drug charges, yet the exact number of those currently left in custody remains unknown due to Russian secrecy—something at the core of Russian governing and diplomacy.
Despite the unknown number of individuals left behind, the families of those known to be detained by Russian authorities have been very outspoken in expressing their disdain. Many have criticized the release of a large number of non-Americans in an American-led swap and the length of their relatives’ detainment. In a time where the U.S government has often been criticized for its over-involvement in foreign affairs, particularly when it comes to Israel and Ukraine, only three of the 16 individuals released being American contributed heavily to this sentiment. For instance, the family of Mark Fogel, a teacher still being held on marijuana possession charges, said in a statement, “This fight has been met not with support and understanding, but with stonewalling, double standards, and—today—abandoning Marc to die in prison for less than an ounce of medical marijuana prescribed to manage his severe decades-long spinal disease.” The U.S. government is currently facing a major change in administration, and with this likely will come a change in the relationship between U.S. and Russia, creating greater uncertainty around the future of each of the imprisoned.
Given the long negotiation period and secrecy surrounding the Russian prison swap, there is so much uncertainty that has largely left these families and American nationals with little-to-no hope. One detainee’s boyfriend has been left to wonder if “her trial came too late and she was left behind.” However, to help these families cope with the detainments and help bring their loved ones home, the first step and often most challenging step is obtaining an official designation of “wrongly detained.” Even once that is established, countries such as Russia simply do not care about the status of their imprisonments, as they are inherently undemocratic nations.
The future goals that the U.S. should set are simultaneously clear yet complicated. In order to help the U.S. prisoners and mitigate future damage to the political image of the U.S. on a foreign policy level, there must be some level of commitment to prisoners of other nations, as international cooperation has proved necessary in every successful exchange with Russia thus far. However, at the same time, there must be an emphasis on the freedom of American prisoners in order to prevent further outrage from families and to help reaffirm the commitment of the U.S. to its own citizens during its negotiations. Most of all, it must always be emphasized that in negotiations with Russia, foreign diplomacy is the foremost factor over the law itself.
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