Conflict between groups is an unfortunate reality of the international community. One of the oldest conflicts between two ethnic groups is between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Both nations are located in the Soviet Bloc, and during the Cold War, the Soviet Union was able to maintain peace between them. However, after the end of the Cold War, these regions came into conflict more often.
Armenia is one of the oldest Christian civilizations and is surrounded by Muslim states. The center of many conflicts between Armenia and Azerbaijan is the region of Nagorno-Karabakh, which holds great significance for both groups. During the fall of the Soviet Union, Armenia was more politically stable than Azerbaijan, allowing the Armenians to militarily occupy the region of Nagorno-Karabakh and keep the Azerbaijanis at bay in 1993. However, resentment seethed just beneath the surface.
Thanks to its rich oil and natural gas reserves, Azerbaijan was able to amass wealth and gain the support of many Western countries, including the United States. The wealth accumulated from its resources allowed Azerbaijan to build its military. Driven by the desire to retake Nagorno-Karabakh, Azeri President Ilham Aliyev rallied his citizens against Armenians. Interestingly, Aliyev was the son of President Heydar Aliyev, a former KGB agent in the Soviet Union.
The ethnic hatred of Armenians by Azeris manifested itself in a 2004 NATO exercise, during which an Azerbaijani officer was found guilty of murdering an Armenian military officer. Although the Azerbaijani officer was found guilty, he was extradited to Azerbaijan where he was hailed as a hero instead of facing a life in prison.
Since 1993, Azerbaijan slowly began to retake the territory it lost until Russia stepped in to enforce a ceasefire, leaving most of the region surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh in Azerbaijani control. The city of Nagorno-Karabakh, however, was to be held by Armenia. Russia, though, was only able to maintain the ceasefire until its invasion of Ukraine in 2022. As a test against Russia’s military capacity, Azerbaijan’s military cut off the only road to Nagorno-Karabkh, enforcing a city-wide siege. Russia is unable to fight a war in Ukraine while enforcing a ceasefire between Azerbaijan and Armenia. The lack of Russian intervention led to the Armenians in the region being forced to vacate their home in what is being called an ethnic cleansing.
The renewed conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan has resulted in a high cost of human life. After the 1993 war in Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenia saw a massive influx of Azerbaijani refugees — more than 70,000 people. In addition to the housing crisis created, many Azerbaijani refugees did not speak Armenian, establishing a language barrier. The poverty rate in Armenia climbed from 20% in 1988 to 55% in 1996. Inflation in 1994 was at 5000%.
After the second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020, Armenian officials claimed that 90,000 people had been displaced along with 40 civilian and 4000 military casualties. The Azerbaijani population was not better off, suffering 90 civilian and 3000 military casualties from the conflict. In addition to the human cost, Azerbaijan now faces the challenge of having to reallocate large amounts of resources to rebuild the newly-captured territory. During the conflict, 5000 Armenian civilians took asylum in the Russian headquarters, and it is estimated that 60,000 Armenian civilians were in danger of Azerbaijan’s shelling of the Nagorno-Karabakh region. The conflict has caused many psychological issues among civilians, especially among the elderly. Older generations find it the most difficult to evacuate the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Limited by physical disabilities, health problems, and personal attachments to their homes, many of them are hesitant to leave their homes. More than half the Armenian civilian deaths were among older people and, according to Amnesty International, some civilian causes of death were murder by the Azerbaijani military.
It has been hypothesized that Azerbaijan’s invasion of the Nagorno-Karabakh region was a test of Russian military strength and its ability to continue its invasion of Ukraine and defend Armenia. The Russian military’s efforts in Ukraine, often stymied, has revealed that it may not be strong enough to stop the Azerbaijani army. And, Russia’s war with Ukraine has alienated most of Europe, including Armenia and Azerbaijan. Historically, Russia has traditionally overseen treaties between the two countries, but both are hesitant to continue to allow Russia to broker these agreements after its invasion of Ukraine.
Although statements have been issued by the United States and the European Union condemning the conflict, little has been done to actually end the conflict or aid those in need. The lack of action by the rest of the world has allowed Azerbaijan to continue to evict the Armenians from their homes. The precedent that is being set is a dangerous one, allowing Azerbaijan to blatantly ignore a ceasefire and force Armenians out of their homes. The fear is that the conflict will perpetuate a cycle of violence between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Although the conflict appears to be “over” because Azerbaijan has forced most of the Armenian population out of Nagorno-Karabakh, there is likely to be retaliation in the future, costing more human lives.
Image source: Diego Delso
