“Bulgaria’s Rising Autocrats and Their EU Enablers” was originally published in our Fall 2021 Print Edition: Authoritarianism.
Whereas Poland and Hungary have taken a front seat in 2021 autocracy news, Bulgaria, alongside other Balkan nations, has been quietly slipping back into autocracy itself, at a less noticeable but nonetheless important pace. Bulgaria’s Democracy Score declined from 4.61 to 4.54 during 2019.1 The numerical decline can specifically be attributed to the decline in the electoral process rating (from 5.75 to 5.50) and the independent media rating (from 3.75 to 3.50). Bulgaria is slowly undoing the democratic progress it has made since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991.2 Several trends indicate democratic deterioration: an unreliable legal system, illegal seizures of territories on its borders, top party officials who threaten businesses to rob Bulgarians of aid package money, police brutality towards protestors, and the continuing oppression of journalists and free press are chief culprits.3
Why has this decline been occurring? Bulgaria suffers from high levels of corruption stemming from the recycling of top officials from the Cold War period, with the most notorious example being ex-Prime Minister Boyko Borisov, who served as a bodyguard to Bulgaria’s last communist leader before climbing the civil service ranks.4 The corrupt judiciary is another major reason for the decline of democracy in Bulgaria: judges across the country frequently practice arbitrary judgment, and are easily bribed. At the highest level, Chief Prosecutor Ivan Geshev protects Borisov despite mounting evidence of his corruption and extortion.5 According to Hristo Ivanov, former justice minister turned leader of the anti-corruption Yes Bulgaria party, the judicial branch “has been weaponized for intra-oligarch turf wars and extortion of businessmen.”6
As Bulgaria’s government pushes the fragile boundaries of democracy, international liberal organizations which were partly instituted to ensure the proliferation of democracy after the Cold War are failing to hold parties accountable. Despite Borisov’s clear violations of democracy, abuses of power, and murky ties to over three hundred political deaths, Angela Merkel–as both the largest player in the European Union and as the German Chancellor–and the European People’s Parliament (EPP) continue to express their support of Borisov.7 Despite deepening internal turmoil and increasing reports of corruption and mafia-like behavior in its government, the EU’s Cooperation and Verification Mechanism on judicial reform provided suspiciously “rosy reports” on Bulgaria, according to Ivanov.8 Given that there is little that citizens of Bulgaria can do to improve domestic judiciary problems, the EU’s inaccurate reports on Bulgarian rule-of-law make the problem difficult to subsequently remediate.
At the heart of Borisov’s apparent immunity to EU scrutiny are Angela Merkel and Borisov’s protectorate relationship. Borisov puts on a “golden boy”, pro-EU, anti-Moscow attitude, and in return Merkel, alongside the EPP, turns a blind eye to corruption in Bulgaria.9 Instead of holding the government accountable for their actions and condemning corruption in leadership, the EPP continues to funnel money into aid packages to alleviate poverty in Bulgaria, which the government, in turn, mishandles and partially pockets.10 Recently, a GERB party member used money from a hundred million euro EU aid package intended to help rural poverty to instead build himself a mansion. Despite proof of collusion, the former minister retains his house and remains free.11 The misuse of EU aid packages is causing many protests to erupt in the capital, Sofia, and throughout the country.12
This begs the question of how the EU is actually helping. Instinctively, aid packages may appear to help; however, because of rampant corruption, the aid is almost always mishandled. The European Union’s strategy of pumping money into increasingly autocratic countries (see the EU’s COVID-19 packages to Hungary and Poland €5.6 and €7.4 billion euros respectively, in contrast to Italy’s €2.3 billion) while leaving too much discretion to the autocratic leadership of each country only enriches those anti-democratic leaders.13 What is behind the European Union’s moral paradox? The short-term benefit for the EU’s protection of autocratic regimes in Southern Europe is monetary: Germany, a creditor to southern European states, has made billions of dollars in interest off of loans to those countries during the ongoing eurozone debt crisis.14 Long-term, however, it is clear that empowering autocratic regimes can only corrode the European Union’s power and standing, and it would serve the EU to utilize the tools it has at its disposal to suspend bailout payments and aid packages to countries violating rule of law.
The murder of anti-corruption journalist Viktoria Marinova in 2018 demonstrates another consequence of enabling autocratizing regimes. Marinova covered corruption in the EU and Bulgaria, and her death, which is thought to have been politically orchestrated, sent the message that governments can silence independent media and get away with it.15 Bulgaria holds the lowest press freedom ranking in Europe, and the lack of a charge linking the Bulgarian government to Marinova’s murder further indicates how its flawed justice system enables media corruption.16 Even more alarmingly, international institutions are doing little concretely to effectively condemn and prevent further targeting of journalists. The European Commission has provided recommendations to ensure media safety, but they are non-binding, like many multinational legal frameworks. The protection of journalists’ lives, and thus the preservation of freedom of speech and the right to criticize one’s government, must go beyond teethless recommendations and half-hearted attempts at justice.
The European Union is perhaps Bulgaria’s last chance at backtracking on its mafia-like government and rampant corruption. Bulgaria’s citizens know; they protest in the hopes that other, more powerful governments than their own will hear and apply pressure accordingly. However, the EU has left the citizens of Bulgaria frustrated. If the Bulgarian government is able to chip away at the shell of a democracy which governs its state today, the slope to autocracy is slippery, as is the European Union’s ability to enforce its legal codes and recommendations across the board. “If the EU is unable to guarantee minimal standards of rule of law in a member state as weak…as Bulgaria, what is it good for?” points out Ivanov.17 As the expression goes, a parliament is only as good as its weakest link, and currently the weakest link—Bulgaria—is being wholly neglected.
As Bulgaria heads towards its third election, it is attempting to re-establish a ruling party which will address corruption and re-democratize. Severe divisions amongst the Bulgarian populace and a political system that allows room for a seemingly endless political tug-of-war is setting Bulgaria up for a power vacuum, which would likely allow a dictator-like figure to rise and continue to consolidate power in one party. In combination with widespread misinformation, Bulgaria’s electoral integrity has also been declining, showing little promise for a more democratic future.18
Autocratization in Bulgaria and Eastern Europe reflects a larger pattern of increasing autocratization globally.19 This autocratization is largely due to domestic failures, but if the international liberal institutions put in place to prevent nations from returning to autocracy and totalitarianism are not doing their job, what gives?
Endnotes:
1. Emilia Zankina and Boris Gurov. “Nations in Transit 2020: Bulgaria.” Freedom House, https://freedomhouse.org/country/bulgaria/nations-transit/2020.
2. Nikolay Nikolov. “It’s been 30 years since the fall of communism, and now we’re all facing similar challenges.” Independent, November 10, 2019, https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/bulgaria-communism-democracy-anniversary-brexit-trump-a9197126.html.
3. Christian Oliver. “How Bulgaria became the EU’s mafia state.” Politico, September 9, 2020, https://www.politico.eu/article/bulgaria-how-it-became-mafia-state-of-eu/.
4. “Bulgaria: At the Crossroads.” Al Jazeera English, August 19, 2021, Youtube video, 0:00 to 25:00, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mvjyh8Z-D4Q.
5. ibid.
6. Christian Oliver. “EU’s credibility is at stake over Bulgaria, says reformist leader.” Politico, August 10, 2020, https://www.politico.eu/article/bulgaria-hristo-ivanov-eu-credibility-at-stake/.
7. ibid.
8. “Commission reports on progress made in Bulgaria under the Cooperation and Verification Mechanism.” European Commission, October 22, 2019, https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_19_6136.
9. Alexander Andreev. “Bulgarian prime minister is Brussels’ ‘golden boy’.” DW, May 26, 2016, https://www.dw.com/en/bulgarian-prime-minister-is-brussels-golden-boy/a-19285290.
10. Daniel Keleman and Jacob Soll. “The EU is undermining its democracies while funding its autocracies.” Politico, May 13, 2020, https://www.politico.eu/article/the-eu-is-undermining-its-democracies-while-funding-its-autocracies-coronavirus-covid19-rule-of-law/.
11. “Bulgaria: At the Crossroads.” Al Jazeera English, August 19, 2021, Youtube video, 0:00 to 25:00, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mvjyh8Z-D4Q.
12. Christine Milenova. “What the Bulgarian protesters mean by “EU, are you blind?” The Political Economy Review, November 26, 2020, https://medium.com/the-political-economy-review/what-the-bulgarian-protesters-mean-by-eu-are-you-blind-48caea04b6ba.
13. Daniel Keleman and Jacob Soll. “The EU is undermining its democracies while funding its autocracies.” Politico, May 13, 2020, https://www.politico.eu/article/the-eu-is-undermining-its-democracies-while-funding-its-autocracies-coronavirus-covid19-rule-of-law/.
14. ibid.
15. “Bulgarian journalist Viktoria Marinova killed in Ruse.” BBC, October 8, 2018, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-45777948.
16. Emilia Zankina and Boris Gurov. “Nations in Transit 2020: Bulgaria.” Freedom House, https://freedomhouse.org/country/bulgaria/nations-transit/2020.
17. Christian Oliver. “EU’s credibility is at stake over Bulgaria, says reformist leader.” Politico, August 10, 2020, https://www.politico.eu/article/bulgaria-hristo-ivanov-eu-credibility-at-stake/.
18. Andrea Fumarola and Nikolay Marinov. “Bulgaria’s new voting reforms risk undermining the country’s electoral process.” London School of Economics, May 3, 2016, https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2016/05/03/limiting-the-vote-from-abroad-erodes-bulgarias-democracy-evidence-from-the-electoral-integrity-project/.
19. Daniel Keleman. “Curing the virus of autocracy in Europe: Q+A with Daniel Keleman.” UCL Europe Blog, December 7, 2020, https://ucleuropeblog.com/2020/12/07/curing-the-virus-of-autocracy-in-europe-qa-with-daniel-kelemen/.